ChartAlert®

Featured

Hello, India!

This featured post is about ChartAlert, a Real-Time-Enabled and End-of-Day Technical Analysis Advisory, Charting and Scanning Desktop Software

1–2 minutes

ChartAlert® is a Microsoft® Windows® compatible Real-Time-Enabled and End-of-Day Technical Analysis Advisory, Charting and Scanning Desktop Software that complements your trading and investing needs.

ChartAlert features three seamless modules.

1. The Charting module includes Charting and Masks.

2. The Reporting module includes Basic Advisory Content and Market Reports.

3. The Scanning module includes Basic Scanner, Advanced Scanner, RS Matrix & Trend Matrix, Trading Systems Builder and the Backtester.

CUMMINSIND – Cummins India – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 27-May-26

Cummins India’s FY26 delivered 17% revenue and 18% PAT growth, debt‑free balance sheet, and ₹1,400 Cr FCF with ~160 bps margin expansion. Risks: ₹477 Cr receivables build and ₹503 Cr WC drag compressing FCF conversion. Strong industrial capex visibility, but sustaining premium valuations hinges on FCF quality.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew 16.9% YoY (₹10,219 Cr → ₹11,950 Cr), driven entirely by the Engines segment — the sole reported business post-Lubes elimination.
Q4FY26 revenue at ₹2,963 Cr grew 22.1% YoY vs Q4FY25 (₹2,428 Cr), but dipped 1.4% QoQ from Q3’s ₹3,006 Cr — minor sequential softness.
Other income (₹517 Cr in FY26 vs ₹447 Cr in FY25) contributes meaningfully to reported profits; treasury income of ₹189 Cr is the primary driver.

Bottomline

Reported PAT grew 18.1% YoY (₹2,000 Cr → ₹2,362 Cr); adjusting for net exceptional charges of ₹82 Cr (FY26) vs nil (FY25), underlying PAT growth is closer to 22%.
Q4FY26 PAT at ₹649 Cr grew 22.7% YoY (vs ₹530 Cr in Q4FY25) and 33.6% QoQ — the Q3 base was depressed by ₹127 Cr labour code provision.
JV/associate profit contribution (Valvoline Cummins) held flat at ₹266 Cr YoY — no incremental earnings growth from this portfolio.

Margins

Operating margin (EBIT, pre-other income): Profit before exceptional items = ₹2,901 Cr on revenues of ₹11,950 Cr. Stripping other income (₹517 Cr) yields core EBIT of ~₹2,384 Cr on ₹11,950 Cr = ~20.0% core operating margin vs ~18.4% in FY25 (₹1,879 Cr / ₹10,219 Cr) — ~160 bps expansion YoY.
Net profit margin: ₹2,362 Cr / ₹11,950 Cr = 19.8% (FY26) vs ₹2,000 Cr / ₹10,219 Cr = 19.6% (FY25) — marginal expansion, as tax rate and exceptional items offset operating gains.
Employee costs declined slightly (₹797 Cr → ₹794 Cr) despite revenue growing 17% — meaningful operating leverage on the fixed-cost base.

Growth Trajectory

Three-year demand cycle in industrial/power generation engines remains intact; 17% topline growth on a ₹10,000 Cr+ base signals broad-based volume + mix improvement.
Lubes segment (Valvoline Cummins, 100% consolidated in segment but eliminated at group level) grew revenue 28% YoY (₹2,352 Cr → ₹3,009 Cr) — outpacing Engines; margin recovery notable.
Free cash flow (OCF ₹1,734 Cr less capex ₹252 Cr) = ₹1,482 Cr in FY26 vs ₹1,457 Cr in FY25 — FCF growth nearly flat despite 18% PAT growth, due to working capital absorption.

EICHERMOT – Eicher Motors – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-May-26

EICHERMOT/ Eicher Motors’ topline growth is structurally robust (premiumization + exports + EV), but margins hinge on commodity mitigation and capacity execution; financing JV adds long-term optionality.

1–2 minutes

Also see: EICHERMOT – Eicher Motors – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key Variables: Commodity inflation stabilizes at 3–3.5%, premium motorcycle demand grows 15–20%, and Cheyyar expansion delivers 2M capacity by Q2 FY28.
Outlook: Revenue grows 12–15% CAGR (driven by Royal Enfield + VECV), margins stable at ~25% (price hikes + cost reductions offset inflation), and EV/Flying Flea contributes 5–10% to revenue by FY29. Financing JV scales to INR 5K–7K crores AUM by FY28.

PRESTIGE – Prestige Estates Projects – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-May-26

PRESTIGE/ Prestige Estates Projects’ topline growth (15–20%) and margin expansion (25–28%) are contingent on execution and demand stability, while bottomline resilience hinges on debt discipline and revenue recognition catch-up.

1–2 minutes

Also see: PRESTIGE – Prestige Estates Projects – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 21-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Approvals on schedule, IT demand stable but flat.
FY27 presales 15–20% growth (INR34,500–36,000 crores), collections INR20,000–21,000 crores, EBITDA margin 25–26%. Commercial assets 70–80% leased by FY29, net debt-equity 0.7–0.75x. INR12,000–13,000 crores residential revenue recognized.

ADSL – Allied Digital Services – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-May-26

ADSL/ Allied Digital Services’ topline poised for 20–25% growth (AI + pipeline), but bottomline hinges on margin expansion (12.5–13%) and Government project execution; margins face structural tailwinds from AI but near-term pressure from competitive pricing.

1–2 minutes

Also see: ADSL – Allied Digital Services – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 21-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Revenue grows 20–22% YoY (₹1,150–1,200 crore) with 12.5–13% EBITDA margins, supported by AI savings and Enterprise segment momentum. Government projects (₹600 crore contracts) award in H2 FY27; Western Railway retender closes by Q3. PAT: ₹40–42 crore (tax rate: 25%).

MOTHERSON – Samvardhana Motherson International – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 20-May-26

Samvardhana Motherson’s topline growth hinges on consumer electronics/aerospace scale-up, bottomline resilience depends on pass-through execution, and margins are structurally supported by diversification but cyclically pressured by commodity lags.

1–2 minutes

Also see: MOTHERSON – Samvardhana Motherson International – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 20-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Consumer electronics doubles revenue (GF3 ramp in H2 FY27), aerospace grows 30% YoY, and automotive holds steady (EV at 15% of revenue by FY28). Margins stabilize at 9.5–10% as pass-throughs offset inflation. ROCE at 16–17%, leverage <1.0x, and dividend payout at 20%. USD 108B target remains aspirational but FY27 revenue at USD 26–28B.

SIEMENS – Siemens Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 26-May-26

Siemens India exits transition as a focused industrial play in Smart Infrastructure and Mobility. Risks: Digital Industries margin rebuild and WC bleed. Re‑rating hinges on margin inflection and FCF turning positive; until then, stock earns quality premium but lacks momentum catalyst.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Q4FY26 revenue at ₹46,175 Mn — highest quarterly run-rate in the 18-month period, up 14.6% QoQ vs Q3FY26 (₹38,307 Mn) and 14.6% YoY vs Q4FY25 (₹40,292 Mn)
Annualising the 18-month revenue (₹246,456 Mn ÷ 1.5) implies a ~₹164,304 Mn annual run-rate, up ~8.5% vs FY24’s ₹151,457 Mn — moderate organic growth after stripping period distortion
Smart Infrastructure dominates at 56% of segment revenue (18M: ₹140,397 Mn); Digital Industries weakest performer, losing share to the other two segments

Bottomline

Continuing operations PAT for 18M: ₹22,834 Mn vs FY24’s ₹19,619 Mn — annualised ~₹15,223 Mn/year implies ~22% step-down vs FY24 on an annualised basis, largely due to Energy demerger loss of contribution
Q4FY26 continuing PAT: ₹3,552 Mn vs Q4FY25: ₹3,929 Mn — 9.6% YoY decline despite higher revenue, flagging cost pressure or mix shift
Exceptional item (₹743 Mn labour code charge in Q3FY26) and demerger-related expenses (₹1,092 Mn over 18M) are one-time drags; clean recurring earnings modestly better than reported

Margins

Segment EBIT margin (18M): ₹25,183 Mn on ₹251,681 Mn segment revenue = 10.0% vs FY24’s ₹17,968 Mn on ₹153,737 Mn = 11.7% — 170 bps deterioration
Digital Industries EBIT collapsed: ₹3,042 Mn on ₹58,722 Mn (18M) = 5.2% vs ₹4,830 Mn on ₹40,961 Mn in FY24 = 11.8% — a 660 bps crash, the single biggest margin drag
Q4FY26 EBIT margin recovery visible: segment EBIT ₹3,753 Mn on ₹46,630 Mn = 8.1% vs Q3FY26’s ₹3,533 Mn on ₹38,859 Mn = 9.1% — volume leverage not fully flowing to margins yet

Growth Trajectory

Mobility is the strongest growth segment: 18M revenue ₹49,778 Mn vs FY24’s ₹29,161 Mn — annualised ~₹33,185 Mn, ~13.8% growth; EBIT margin held at ~6.9% (18M) vs 7.1% (FY24)
Smart Infrastructure growing steadily: annualised ~₹93,598 Mn vs FY24’s ₹82,579 Mn — ~13.3% YoY, with EBIT margin improvement to 13.1% (18M) from 13.2% (FY24) — broadly stable
Digital Industries revenue grew in absolute terms but profitability collapsed — a volume-without-margin expansion that needs structural explanation before investors can reward it

BBOX – Black Box Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 26-May-26

Black Box’s FY26 shows modest growth, stronger balance sheet, and improving pre‑exceptional profitability, but trade receivables nearly tripled. Margin re‑rating hinges on Technology Product Solutions turning accretive and exceptional charges easing. With negligible FCF and finance costs consuming two‑thirds of PBT, revenue acceleration and WC discipline are critical.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew 6% YoY (₹5,966 Cr → ₹6,322 Cr), driven primarily by System Integration (+5% YoY, ₹5,069 Cr → ₹5,326 Cr), which contributed 84% of FY26 revenue.
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹1,691 Cr was the strongest quarter, up 9.5% YoY vs Q4FY25 (₹1,545 Cr), signaling a second-half acceleration.
Technology Product Solutions grew 11% YoY (₹764 Cr → ₹847 Cr), a positive inflection despite persistent segment-level losses.

Bottomline

Reported PAT grew 6.2% YoY (₹205 Cr → ₹218 Cr), but effective tax rate spiked to 9% in FY26 vs 3.7% in FY25 due to prior-year deferred tax tailwinds; pre-tax profit grew a stronger 13% (₹212 Cr → ₹239 Cr).
Exceptional items consumed ₹62.85 Cr in FY26 (vs ₹65.69 Cr in FY25) — recurring in nature, structurally suppressing reported earnings by ~₹63 Cr annually.
Basic EPS grew modestly from ₹12.16 → ₹12.78, partially diluted by fresh equity issuance under share warrants.

Margins

Segment EBIT margin (Total segment results / Revenue): FY26 = 440.38 / 6,321.85 = 6.97% vs FY25 = 424.16 / 5,966.91 = 7.11% — marginal compression despite absolute EBIT growth.
Net profit margin held flat at ~3.4% (₹217.52 / ₹6,321.85 in FY26 vs ₹204.78 / ₹5,965.91 in FY25).
Finance costs rose 9% YoY (₹145 Cr → ₹158 Cr), consuming a rising share of operating profit and capping margin expansion.

Growth Trajectory

Two-year revenue run-rate is low-single-digit organic growth; the business is scaling but not re-rating — no step-change inflection visible in FY26.
Technology Product Solutions segment moved from ₹(32.72) Cr EBIT loss in FY25 to ₹(15.84) Cr in FY26 — loss halved, trajectory improving but not yet accretive.
Others segment EBIT grew from ₹15.20 Cr → ₹22.09 Cr (+45% YoY), smallest but fastest-improving contributor.

GVT&D – GE Vernova T&D India – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 19-May-26

GVT&D/ GE Vernova T&D India’s topline growth (15–25% CAGR) hinges on HVDC/export execution; margins (mid-20s) depend on legacy roll-off and localization; cash flows remain robust but sensitive to project phasing.

1–2 minutes

Also see: GVT&D – GE Vernova T&D India – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 18-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key Variables: HVDC execution on track (FY29+), domestic T&D capex sustained (INR 70–80B/year), export growth (15–20% CAGR).
Outlook: Revenue grows 15–20% CAGR (FY26–28) with mid-20s EBITDA margins, supported by backlog conversion (INR 214.6B) and capex-driven capacity. Dividend stability (INR 10/share) likely.

KEC – KEC International – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 18-May-26

KEC International’s topline growth (12–15%) is underpinned by T&D and Civil, but margins (3.6% PBT, 2.6% PAT) and cash flows hinge on West Asia stabilization, steel pass-throughs, and labor normalization.

1–2 minutes

Also see: KEC – KEC International – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

West Asia partial normalization by Q2 FY27; INR200–250 cr Q4 revenue spillover recovered. Steel prices oscillate at INR3,000–4,000/tonne, with 50% pass-through success. Civil grows 30%, T&D order intake at INR17,000–18,000 cr, and margins flat to +20bps. EPS growth: 10–12%.

HINDALCO – Hindalco Industries – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-May-26

HINDALCO’s topline leveraged to aluminum/copper prices and premiums; bottomline sensitive to exceptional items (Oswego, TC/RCs) and cost inflation; margins hinge on operational efficiencies (Novelis cost cuts, captive coal) and regional premiums.

1–2 minutes

Also see: HINDALCO – Hindalco Industries – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Aluminum market rebalances in H2 CY26 as European/West Asia restarts and Indonesia ramp-ups offset disruptions. LME averages $2,800–3,000/ton, Midwest premiums normalize to $300–350/ton, and sulfuric acid prices correct in H2 FY27. Bay Minette ramp-up proceeds as planned, captive coal contributes modestly in FY28, and cost inflation stabilizes at ~3–5%. Consolidated EBITDA grows 8–10% in FY27, with net debt-to-EBITDA ~1.9x.