ChartAlert®

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This featured post is about ChartAlert, a Real-Time-Enabled and End-of-Day Technical Analysis Advisory, Charting and Scanning Desktop Software

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ChartAlert® is a Microsoft® Windows® compatible Real-Time-Enabled and End-of-Day Technical Analysis Advisory, Charting and Scanning Desktop Software that complements your trading and investing needs.

ChartAlert features three seamless modules.

1. The Charting module includes Charting and Masks.

2. The Reporting module includes Basic Advisory Content and Market Reports.

3. The Scanning module includes Basic Scanner, Advanced Scanner, RS Matrix & Trend Matrix, Trading Systems Builder and the Backtester.

BAJFINANCE – Bajaj Finance – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 29-Apr-26

BAJFINANCE: Topline resilience (20–24% AUM growth), bottomline outperformance (profit growth > AUM growth), and margin stability (ROA 4.4–4.6%) under base-case assumptions, with asymmetric downside risks tied to geopolitics and execution.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Macro remains stable but volatile. AUM grows 22% (gold loans at 4–5% of AUM, MSME recovers in H2 FY27). Credit costs average 155 bps (MSME/2-wheeler tailwinds offset by mild macro headwinds). Opex/NTI improves 30 bps, NIM moderates slightly. ROA/ROE sustain at 4.5%/20%, with profit growth ~10–15% above AUM growth.

BAJAJHFL – Bajaj Housing Finance – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 27-Apr-26

BAJAJHFL: Topline growth remains robust (20%+ AUM), but bottomline pressure from NIM compression (~10 bps ROA impact) and margins face structural headwinds (yield mix, competitive intensity) offset partially by opex/credit cost tailwinds.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key Variables: Stable policy rates, money market rates normalize by H2 FY27, competitive intensity moderates.
Outlook: NIM compression ~10 bps (offset by opex efficiency and lower credit costs). AUM grows 20–22%, ROA at 2.2%, ROE at 12.5%. BT-out rates decline to 8–9% post-Q1. Sambhav AUM reaches INR 12,000 crores by FY27.

SHRIRAMFIN – Shriram Finance – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 24-Apr-26

SHRIRAMFIN: Topline resilience (15–20% AUM growth) with margin stability (8.5–9.0% NIM), but bottomline sensitivity to monsoon/fuel shocks (EPS range: -10% to +35%).

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Monsoon at 95–100% LPA, fuel prices stabilize at $90–95/bbl, and geopolitical tensions ease. AUM grows 16–18% (CV/PV lead, MSME at 13–15%). NIM expands to 8.7–8.8% (cost-of-funds benefits). Credit cost remains at 1.6–1.8% (no major asset quality deterioration). EPS grows 20–25% YoY.

SOBHA – Sobha Ltd- Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 4-May-26

SOBHA’s FY26 marks inflection: PAT doubled, FCF positive, finance costs declining. Yet EBIT margin compression, widening standalone‑consolidated PAT gap, and undisclosed surge in non‑current assets raise earnings‑quality concerns. Strong advances support near‑term visibility, but FY27 hinges on margin recovery and subsidiary profitability to validate consolidated trajectory.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations surged 28.5% YoY (₹40,387 Mn → ₹51,905 Mn), with Q4 FY26 alone delivering ₹19,878 Mn — 60.1% higher than Q4 FY25 (₹12,406 Mn), indicating significant back-end revenue recognition.
Real estate segment drove 85.1% of net revenue (₹44,197 Mn), growing 30.8% YoY; contractual & manufacturing contributed ₹10,284 Mn (+23.9% YoY).
Q4 FY26 revenue of ₹19,878 Mn vs Q3 FY26’s ₹9,431 Mn (110.8% QoQ jump) reflects heavy H2 skew, typical of SOBHA’s project completion-linked revenue recognition.

Bottomline

PAT more than doubled YoY: ₹947 Mn → ₹1,934 Mn (+104.3%), with Basic EPS rising from ₹9.28 to ₹18.09.
Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹918 Mn accounts for 47.5% of full-year PAT, consistent with a Q4-heavy revenue pattern.
Effective tax rate compressed meaningfully: 28.8% in FY26 vs 28.8% in FY25, but large deferred tax credits (₹1,342 Mn in FY26 vs ₹1,269 Mn in FY25) continue to suppress the cash tax burden relative to reported PAT.

Margins

EBITDA proxy (PBT + Finance costs + D&A): ₹2,599 + ₹1,374 + ₹1,060 = ₹5,033 Mn on revenue of ₹51,905 Mn → EBITDA margin ~9.7% vs FY25: (₹1,330 + ₹1,956 + ₹898) / ₹40,387 = ~10.4%. Margin contracted ~70 bps despite topline scale-up.
Net profit margin improved: ₹1,934 / ₹51,905 = 3.73% vs ₹947 / ₹40,387 = 2.34% — a 139 bps improvement, driven by lower finance costs (₹1,374 Mn vs ₹1,956 Mn, down 29.8%).
Real estate EBIT margin: ₹3,829 / ₹44,197 = 8.7% vs ₹3,491 / ₹33,782 = 10.3% — segment-level compression signals rising land + sub-contractor costs absorbing revenue growth.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR implied over FY25–FY26 stands at 28.5%; PAT CAGR at 104% (low base effect). Standalone PAT of ₹3,013 Mn vs consolidated ₹1,934 Mn suggests subsidiary drag at the consolidated level.
Other current liabilities jumped from ₹1,00,807 Mn to ₹1,20,130 Mn (+19.2%), predominantly customer advances — confirms strong pre-sales momentum feeding future revenue.
Inventory build continues: ₹1,12,522 Mn → ₹1,28,263 Mn (+14.0%), reflecting active project pipeline but tying up significant capital.

KEI – KEI Industries – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 4-May-26

KEI’s FY26 shows accelerating topline, margin expansion, zero debt, and stronger cash conversion. Capex into C&W capacity aligns with 33.5% profit growth and infra tailwinds, though returns emerge FY27–28. EPC margin collapse and rising payables need resolution before next re‑rating can be justified.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew 20.7% YoY (₹97,359 Mn → ₹1,17,478 Mn), with Q4 FY26 alone up 19.3% YoY (₹29,148 Mn → ₹34,764 Mn) — demand remains structurally robust.
Cables & Wires dominates at 95.5% of FY26 revenue (₹1,12,206 Mn, +22.3% YoY), absorbing the EPC contraction entirely.
EPC revenue fell 14.4% YoY (₹6,562 Mn → ₹5,614 Mn), a deliberate mix-shift toward higher-margin wires business.

Bottomline

PAT surged 31.9% YoY (₹6,964 Mn → ₹9,184 Mn), outpacing revenue growth by ~11 pp — operating leverage is materialising.
Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹2,843 Mn grew 25.5% YoY (vs. ₹2,265 Mn), with sequential improvement of 21.1% over Q3 FY26 — momentum is accelerating.
Effective tax rate remained stable at ~25.5% (FY26: ₹3,139 Mn on ₹12,323 Mn PBT), providing no distortion to earnings quality.

Margins

EBIT margin (using KPI-stated EBIT of ₹12,964 Mn on revenue of ₹1,17,478 Mn): 11.0% in FY26 vs. 10.2% in FY25 (+80 bps) — a clean expansion.
PAT margin expanded to 7.8% in FY26 (₹9,184 Mn ÷ ₹1,17,478 Mn) from 7.2% in FY25 (₹6,964 Mn ÷ ₹97,359 Mn) — +60 bps.
Finance costs (₹641 Mn) remain well-contained at 0.55% of revenue despite rising capex, reflecting the net cash balance sheet.

Growth Trajectory

Basic EPS grew 27.0% YoY (₹75.65 → ₹96.09) on a near-stable share count — value per share is compounding ahead of book value.
Cables & Wires segment profit grew 33.5% YoY (₹9,749 Mn → ₹13,014 Mn), while EPC profit collapsed 68.0% (₹608 Mn → ₹194 Mn) — the portfolio is self-correcting toward quality.
Total equity grew 15.2% YoY (₹57,858 Mn → ₹66,649 Mn) organically, signalling retained earnings as the primary growth engine post-QIP.

GODREJPROP – Godrej Properties – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 4-May-26

Godrej Properties’ FY26 shows ₹57,807 Cr inventory and ₹39,087 Cr advances underpinning multi‑year pipeline, but reported earnings inflated by ₹2,093 Cr gains. True picture: 4.2% revenue growth, negative OCF, rising short‑term borrowings, collapsing DSCR. Delivery execution is now the decisive risk/opportunity lever.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from Operations grew 4.2% YoY (₹4,922.84 Cr → ₹5,131.43 Cr); Q4 FY26 alone at ₹3,458 Cr contributed ~67% of full-year revenue — extreme back-loading signals lumpy recognition tied to project completions.
Real Estate dominates at 97.7% of segment revenue (₹5,011.79 Cr); Hospitality contributed ₹119.64 Cr (+11.5% YoY) — negligible in scale but directionally positive.
Other Income surged 60.4% YoY (₹2,044.21 Cr → ₹3,279.45 Cr), driven largely by fair value gains on acquisition of control (₹1,677.31 Cr) — inflating total income meaningfully above operational reality.

Bottomline

PAT grew 32.5% YoY (₹1,389.23 Cr → ₹1,840.66 Cr); PAT attributable to owners at ₹1,845.48 Cr vs ₹1,393.42 Cr — solid absolute growth but quality is diluted by non-cash fair value gains embedded in Other Income.
Deferred tax expense ballooned to ₹391.30 Cr (FY26) vs ₹119.42 Cr (FY25) — rising deferred tax liability (₹442.03 Cr on B/S vs ₹15.80 Cr prior year) signals accelerating temporary difference unwinding ahead.
EPS (Diluted) improved to ₹61.42 from ₹49.01 (+25.3% YoY) on a stable share count — genuine per-share accretion confirmed.

Margins

Adjusted EBITDA Margin expanded to 35.31% (FY26) from 31.60% (FY25) — operationally constructive, reflecting revenue mix shift toward higher-margin completed projects.
Net Profit Margin at 21.98% vs 20.29% — incremental improvement, though base includes ₹3,279 Cr Other Income; on Revenue from Operations alone, net margin is materially lower (~35.8% on ₹5,131 Cr, still elevated due to fair value gains flowing through PBT).
Operating Margin (per company formula) at -5.58% for FY26 vs +4.85% FY25 — a sharp deterioration driven by Q3’s -34.19%, partially offset by Q4’s 17.77%; reflects the recognition timing distortion inherent in Ind AS 115 for real estate.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue from Operations 2-year trajectory: FY24 base not provided, but FY25→FY26 growth of 4.2% understates operational scale-up — inventory build of ₹57,807 Cr (up 75.6% YoY from ₹32,928 Cr) signals massive future revenue pipeline.
JV contribution turned positive in Q4 FY26 (₹87.92 Cr) vs losses in prior quarters, lifting full-year share of JV loss to only -₹36.75 Cr vs -₹118.60 Cr in FY25 — recovery trajectory in associate portfolio.
Net Worth grew 10.6% YoY (₹17,312 Cr → ₹19,155 Cr) organically through retained earnings — no equity dilution in FY26 (vs ₹5,921 Cr QIP in FY25).

BHEL – Bharat Heavy Electricals – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 4-May-26

BHEL’s FY26 marks inflection: revenue scale, margin expansion, PAT tripled. Balance sheet clean with ₹11,867 Cr liquid, cash flow supported by advances. Risks: Q4 revenue concentration, ₹14,716 Cr opaque assets, inventory build. FY27 durability hinges on order inflow continuity and Q1–Q3 execution delivery.

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🔍 Observations

🔎 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations surged 19.2% YoY (₹28,339 Cr → ₹33,782 Cr), with Power segment driving 75% of incremental revenue (₹4,469 Cr added).
Q4 FY26 alone clocked ₹12,310 Cr — 37% of full-year revenue — confirming BHEL’s persistent H2/Q4-heavy execution skew.
Industry segment held steady at ₹8,375 Cr (+13.1% YoY), providing a cushion against Power lumpiness.

Bottomline

PAT tripled YoY (₹534 Cr → ₹1,600 Cr, +199.7%), with Q4 FY26 alone contributing ₹1,290 Cr — outsized quarter-end profit recognition.
EPS expanded from ₹1.53 to ₹4.60 (+200.7%), reflecting pure operating leverage with no equity dilution (share capital unchanged at ₹696 Cr).
Deferred tax expense of ₹535 Cr in FY26 vs. ₹189 Cr in FY25 indicates DTA utilization accelerating as taxable profits scale — effective tax burden remains low due to legacy DTA buffer (₹3,533 Cr on balance sheet).

Margins

EBITDA margin (excl. other income) expanded 252 bps YoY: 4.59% → 7.11%; Q4 FY26 spike to 14.38% reflects revenue-heavy quarter absorbing fixed costs fully.
Net profit margin more than doubled: 1.88% → 4.74% FY26; employee cost as % of revenue rose marginally (20.9% → 19.1% — actually improved), while other expenses fell from ₹2,329 Cr → ₹1,989 Cr (-14.6%), a meaningful efficiency gain.
Finance costs held flat at ~₹756 Cr despite short-term borrowings declining ₹845 Cr — interest burden stable, not worsening.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR implied over two years is strong, but Q4 concentration risk is structural: FY26 Q4/FY25 Q4 revenue grew 36.9% YoY — driven by execution acceleration, not new order wins alone.
Power segment EBIT margin (segment result/revenue): FY26: 9.65% vs. FY25: 5.81% — 384 bps expansion signals improved project mix and cost recovery.
Other income jumped 73.6% YoY (₹465 Cr → ₹808 Cr), partly driven by interest on bank balances (₹10,431 Cr parked) — a non-recurring tailwind that flatters PBT.

VBL – Varun Beverages – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 27-Apr-26

Varun Beverages’ topline resilient on volume/demand tailwinds; bottomline hinges on margin defense via cost controls; margins face cyclical (oil) vs. structural (premiumization) trade-offs.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Volume growth: +12–14% (India: +12%, International: +18%) with stable realizations (-1% to +1%). EBITDA margins: 23–24% as cost controls offset moderate oil inflation. Capex: ₹500–600M supports 500K outlet additions. EPS growth: +15–20% YoY.

ZENTEC – Zen Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 1-May-26

ZENTEC’s FY26 was a revenue air pocket, not structural: margins expanded, FCF strong, debt‑free balance sheet, ₹1,336 Cr order book supports FY27 recovery. Execution risk remains with inventory build and front‑loaded costs; near‑term re‑rating hinges entirely on H1FY27 order‑to‑revenue conversion velocity.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations fell 29.4% YoY (₹97,364 → ₹68,769 lakhs), signalling execution or order-delivery timing issues rather than demand erosion, given the ₹1,336 Cr order book still on hand.
Other income surged 46.3% (₹5,839 → ₹8,542 lakhs), cushioning total income; at 11% of total income, this non-operating contribution is elevated and masks operating weakness.
Revenue base contraction despite a stable share count confirms this is a delivery-cycle dip, not a structural decline — but FY26 becomes a low base for FY27 recovery optics.

Bottomline

Net profit fell 27.2% YoY (₹29,933 → ₹21,793 lakhs), broadly proportional to revenue decline — cost structure held.
EPS compressed from ₹32.07 to ₹21.52 (-32.9%); the wider fall vs. net profit reflects the higher weighted-average share count (8.99 Cr vs. 8.74 Cr), a residual dilution effect from FY25’s QIP.
Tax rate was stable (~26.5% vs. ~26.3%), with prior-period tax of ₹400 lakhs adding a minor one-time drag.

Margins

EBITDA margin on revenue from operations: ₹33,130 / ₹68,769 = 48.2% vs. ₹43,186 / ₹97,364 = 44.4% — margins expanded 380 bps despite lower revenue, driven by favourable cost mix.
Net profit margin: ₹21,793 / ₹68,769 = 31.7% vs. ₹29,933 / ₹97,364 = 30.7% — held steady, confirming operating leverage is intact.
Material cost ratio improved sharply: ₹18,530 / ₹68,769 = 26.9% vs. ₹34,519 / ₹97,364 = 35.5% — product mix shifted toward higher-margin, lower-BOM deliveries in FY26.

Growth Trajectory

A single-year revenue dip after exceptional FY25 growth warrants context — FY25 itself saw strong execution; FY26 appears to be a delivery trough, not a trend reversal.
Order book of ₹1,336 Cr as at March 2026 provides ~1.9x FY26 revenue cover, underpinning near-term recovery visibility.
Employee costs jumped 43.1% (₹8,876 → ₹12,694 lakhs) while manufacturing expenses nearly tripled (₹1,573 → ₹4,532 lakhs) — capacity and headcount are being built ahead of anticipated order execution, a leading indicator of management’s growth confidence.

NETWEB – Netweb Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 2-May-26

Netweb Technologies’ FY26 delivered 90% revenue and 81% PAT growth, with operating leverage, strong cash generation, and minimal debt. Yet a ₹5,836M inventory surge and ₹2,708M short‑term debt pose execution risk. FY27 hinges on clean order conversion, inventory normalization, and borrowing trajectory.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations nearly doubled YoY — ₹11,490M to ₹21,836M (+90.0%) — driven entirely by the Computer Servers segment scaling rapidly.
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹7,737M grew 86.6% vs Q4FY25 (₹4,147M), though it dipped sequentially from Q3FY26’s ₹8,049M, signaling possible quarterly lumpiness.
Other income rose to ₹188M (FY26) from ₹94M (FY25), likely from interest on growing cash and bank deposits.

Bottomline

Net profit grew 81.0% YoY — ₹1,138M to ₹2,058M — broadly in line with revenue growth, confirming no margin dilution at the PAT level.
Q4FY26 PAT of ₹706M grew 65.7% vs Q4FY25 (₹426M); effective tax rate held steady at ~25.6% (FY26) vs ~25.6% (FY25), indicating no tax anomalies.
Basic EPS expanded from ₹20.12 to ₹36.30 (+80.4%), with minimal equity dilution (share capital ₹113.31M → ₹113.88M).

Margins

EBITDA (PBT + Finance Costs + D&A): FY26 = ₹2,765M + ₹130M + ₹142M = ₹3,037M on revenue of ₹21,836M → EBITDA margin ~13.9%; FY25 = ₹1,530M + ₹41M + ₹113M = ₹1,684M on ₹11,490M → 14.7%. Margin compressed ~80bps YoY.
Net profit margin: FY26 = ₹2,058M / ₹21,836M = 9.43%; FY25 = ₹1,138M / ₹11,490M = 9.90%. Marginal compression, within tolerable range.
Other expenses surged to ₹901M (FY26) from ₹441M (FY25) — a 104% jump vs 90% revenue growth — the primary driver of margin compression.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR implied (FY25→FY26): +90%; PAT CAGR: +81% — both exceptional, but base-effect tailwinds from a low-base FY25 must be acknowledged.
Q4FY26 sequential revenue decline of 3.9% (₹8,049M → ₹7,737M) flags possible demand timing risk or deal-push risk in large server contracts.
Finance costs spiked from ₹41M to ₹130M (+218%) as short-term borrowings jumped from ₹2M to ₹2,708M — working capital financing load rising sharply.