The authors — Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — imply India’s post-2011 GDP growth was structurally overstated by ~1.5–2.0% due to deflator and informal-sector mismeasurement, forcing investors to haircut cyclical exposures, reassess consumption-driven bets, and price in policy recalibration risks.
The authors — Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — imply India’s post-2011 GDP growth was structurally overstated by ~1.5–2.0% due to deflator and informal-sector mismeasurement, forcing investors to haircut cyclical exposures, reassess consumption-driven bets, and price in policy recalibration risks.
Nominal GDP grows 9.5% with disinvestment at 70% of target (₹56,000 crore), keeping fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP. Stable spreads and 80% capex execution drive 6.2% growth, though subsidy rollbacks persist; equities expect 12–14% earnings, INR steadies yet oil-sensitive.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: Nominal GDP growth at 9.5%; disinvestment at 70% of target (Rs 56,000 crore). Outcome: Fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP (0.2% slippage), with sovereign spreads stable. Capex execution at 80% supports 6.2% real growth, but subsidy rationalization faces partial rollbacks in H2. Equity markets price in 12–14% earnings growth; INR stabilizes but remains vulnerable to oil shocks.
Imagine having the ability to anticipate market movements with confidence using Dow Theory — an enduring strategy that has guided traders in identifying upward and downward trends for over a century
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What if you could predict market trends with a method that has stood the test of time for over a century? Dow Theory is more than just a historical concept — it remains a trusted guide for traders and investors navigating today’s markets. Whether you’re identifying the next big uptrend or spotting early signs of a downturn, mastering Dow Theory can give you the edge you need to trade with confidence.
Every investor faces doubt, especially when FOMO kicks in. But valuation, as Aswath Damodaran says, is your life vest, helping you stay grounded and avoid costly mistakes. Learn how it can guide your decisions and protect you from the crowd.
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Every trader and investor faces a moment of doubt — a stock is soaring, and you hesitate, thinking, “They must know something I don’t”. This fear of missing out (FOMO) leads many into costly investment mistakes. But what if you had a life vest to keep you grounded? According to Aswath Damodaran, valuation is that life vest — a tool that helps you resist the crowd and make informed decisions. Let’s explore how valuation can guide your stock market journey and protect you from common investing pitfalls.
The stock market never moves in a straight line. Investors who closely follow Nifty’s trends know that history often repeats itself — but with a twist.
After a small Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern* triggered a correction in late-2024, many are wondering: Is this just another dip, or the start of a prolonged downturn? Let’s analyze past trends and current market dynamics to uncover what could be next.
*A non-textbook pattern because it was unusually disproportionate
Discover the sectors that will thrive despite the economic slowdown and corporate earnings pressure in India’s stock market this year
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Over the next 12 months, India’s stock market will be a mixed bag of hurdles and opportunities, as economic headwinds give way to potential growth in key sectors. Traders and investors must strategically focus on sectors with strong fundamentals to maximize returns despite market volatility.
India’s consumption boom is transforming investment opportunities, driven by rising incomes, digital adoption, and premiumization. From Quick Commerce to luxury real estate, shifting consumer trends present new avenues for traders and investors. Explore key insights from the **Indus Valley Annual Report 2025** to stay ahead in India’s evolving market.
On February 10th and 11th, 2025, the NIFTY50 index witnessed a notable decline, leaving investors searching for answers. A combination of global trade tensions, market volatility, and economic uncertainties contributed to this downturn. Understanding these factors is essential for investors and market watchers. Let’s explore the key reasons behind the NIFTY50’s fall and how global events, including U.S. tariffs and China’s steel output, played a role.
In a recent analysis, Sankaran Naren, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, has raised concerns about the elevated valuations of small and mid-cap mutual funds. He suggests that investors should consider pausing their Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in these overvalued segments to mitigate potential risks.
Overvaluation Concerns: Naren highlights that small and mid-cap stocks have reached “absurd” valuation levels, making them less attractive for new investments.
Market Volatility and Risk Management: He emphasizes the importance of risk management in the current volatile market environment, cautioning that neglecting this aspect may lead to financial losses.
Strategic Recommendations: Naren advises investors to avoid initiating new SIPs in small-cap and mid-cap funds and to consider redeeming existing investments in these segments. Instead, he recommends focusing on large-cap funds or diversified strategies that are better positioned to navigate the current market dynamics.
By reassessing your investment strategy in light of these insights, you can better align your portfolio with prevailing market conditions and safeguard your financial goals.
Discover which sectors and stocks could benefit from India’s Budget 2025 reforms.
The Indian Budget 2025 introduces transformative tax reforms, channeling approximately ₹1,00,000 crores into the hands of the middle class. This surge in disposable income is set to reshape consumer spending patterns, unlocking growth opportunities across key sectors and driving momentum in specific NSE and BSE-listed stocks.
The authors — Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — imply India’s post-2011 GDP growth was structurally overstated by ~1.5–2.0% due to deflator and informal-sector mismeasurement, forcing investors to haircut cyclical exposures, reassess consumption-driven bets, and price in policy recalibration risks.