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TCS – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 9-Apr-26

TCS Outlook: AI and vendor consolidation fuel 2–4% CC growth, but macro risks loom. EPS growth (8–10%) depends on margin resilience (24.5–25.5%) and HyperVault execution. Sustainable 25%+ margins hinge on AI productivity, though HyperVault capex and partnerships add near-term volatility.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Stable macro, AI revenue scales to $3B+, HyperVault secures 75% of 100 MW target, BFSI/manufacturing stabilize.
Outcome: Revenue grows 2–4% YoY (CC); margins 24.5–25.5% (FX/wage offset); EPS growth 8–10%. Dividend sustainability intact; HyperVault ROI emerges in 2–3 years.

TCS – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 9-Apr-26

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👉 Also see: TCS – Q4 FY26 Earnings Press Release – 9-Apr-26

🔍 Observations

Q4 Mar-2026 Net Sales reached ₹70,698 Cr, with EBITDA at ₹19,276 Cr and PAT at ₹13,784 Cr — the strongest quarter across all five periods shown.
EBITDA margin held steady at ~27.27% in Q4, broadly in line with the prior three quarters, while annual EBITDA margin improved from 26.40% (FY25) to 27.11% (FY26).
Net Profit Margin for FY26 came in at 18.52%, down from 19.11% in FY25, despite higher absolute PAT.
Exceptional items of ₹4,526 Cr (restructuring, labour codes, legal provisions) weighed on FY26 PBT and PAT. Equity share count remains unchanged at 362 Cr shares.

AURIONPRO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

AURIONPRO’s topline growth (22–30% YoY) is underpinned by lumpy but high-margin Transit/data center deals and banking software stickiness, while bottom-line expansion (19–25% EBITDA margins) hinges on AI-led productivity gains and execution of ₹1,650 crore order book—both contingent on Q4 project delivery and regulatory tailwinds.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: AI investments yield modest near-term ROI (AurionAi contributes 5–10% of incremental revenue; grants cover 20–30% of R&D), and Q4 execution meets targets (60% EBITDA conversion, DSO at 110 days).
Outcome: Revenue grows at 22–25% YoY, with EBITDA margins stable at 19–21%. Operating cash flow turns positive (~₹100–120 crore), supporting continued acquisitions. Order book expands to ₹1,800–2,000 crore on data center/Transit wins. Implication: Trading range of 18–22x FY27e P/E, with premium for AI optionality offset by execution risks.

LTM (LTIMindtree) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 4-Feb-26

LTIMindtree’s topline growth hinges on client productivity transitions and AI monetization execution, while bottom-line resilience depends on New Horizons’ cost offsets; margins face structural 15.5–17.0% range, with upside contingent on AI scalability and forex stability.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Top client stabilizes in Q4; wage hikes offset by 50bps efficiency gains; AI deals ramp in H2 FY27 (2–3% revenue contribution).
Outcome: Revenue grows 8–10% YoY, EBIT margins expand to 16.5%, PAT grows 10–12% YoY. FCF/PAT sustains at 110%+ on working capital discipline.

TECHM – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 16-Jan-26

TECHM’s Base case: Telco adds 1–1.5%; growth 5–6%, margin 13–14%, TCV $3.5–4B, AI +50–100 bps. Bear case sees EU telco delay, BFSI furloughs; growth 3–4%, margin 12%, TCV $3B, while Bull case sees early ramp, BFSI logos; growth 7–9%, margin 15%, TCV >$4.5B.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) European telco contributes 1–1.5% FY27 revenue; (2) Manufacturing offsets auto softness with aerospace.
Outcome: 5–6% YoY revenue growth; margins stabilize at 13–14%. Deal TCV sustains $3.5–4B LTM. AI contributes 50–100 bps to growth via productivity gains. Trigger: Steady BFSI ramp; no material FX shocks.

COFORGE – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

COFORGE targets 25%+ FY27 growth via diversification and cross-sell, with EBIT margin expansion to 15.5%+ hinging on AI scalability and cost discipline. Outcome-based pricing supports upside, but FX, subcontractor costs, and M&A integration risks temper margin gains.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Encora closes by Q1 FY27; Sabre cross-sell delivers $50M incremental revenue; Healthcare/Hi-Tech grow 50%+ YoY; hedge losses normalize.
Outcome: Revenue grows 25% YoY (FY27); EBIT margin expands to 15.5% on AI-driven productivity and Cigniti accretion. FCF/PAT sustains at 100%+. Implication: EPS outperforms; margin expansion justifies premium valuation.

PERSISTENT – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 20-Jan-26

PERSISTENT sustains 15–20% growth with BFSI, healthcare, and AI as drivers. Margins stay range-bound at 14–16% amid structural pressures, while AI monetization and disciplined cash flow management shape profitability.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Steady macro (NA/EU tech spend +3–5%) + AI tool adoption scales linearly (50–75 bps annual margin tailwind).

Revenue grows 15–17% YoY, driven by BFSI/Healthcare modernization and hi-tech product development. Top 100 clients expand at 18–20% YoY.
EBIT margin stabilizes at 14–15%, with labour code impact offset by AI productivity gains. Operating cash flow recovers to 95–100% of PAT as DSO normalizes to 55 days.
EPS rises to ₹30–32, supporting dividend hikes (₹24–26/share) and selective M&A for AI/data capabilities.

WIPRO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 16-Jan-26

FY’27 Outlook: Base case sees 0–2% growth, 17–17.3% margins, EPS flat–5%, $1B buybacks. Bear case warns 2–4% decline, margins 16.8–17%, EPS –10–15%. Bull case targets 4–6% growth, 17.5–18% margins, EPS +10–12%. Triggers: macro stability, AI spend, client budgets.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Deal ramps align with 6-quarter timelines; EMR energy/manufacturing deals convert in H2’26; wage hikes at 5–7%.
Outcome: Revenue grows 0–2% YoY in FY’27, with H2’26 inflection. Margins hold at 17–17.3% on cost discipline. EPS flat to +5% YoY. Buybacks ($1B) supplement dividends; HARMAN synergies partially offset dilution. Trigger: Macro stability; client AI spend ramps post-budget cycles.

TATAELXSI – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 13-Jan-26

TATAELXSI: Transportation-led growth (5–7%) depends on OEM spend; Media/Healthcare recovery vital for 8–10%+. EBITDA expansion (24–26%) hinges on utilization/cost discipline, but vertical concentration and cyclicality remain risks. Margins could reach 26–27% in bull case, tempered by Media/Healthcare execution and defense receivable challenges.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Transportation grows mid-single digits, Media/Healthcare recover in Q4, and utilization hits 80%. EBITDA expands to 24–25% by FY27 on operating leverage. Defense/aerospace contributes 2–3% of revenue with neutral ROCE. Key variables: (1) Q4 deal wins, (2) hiring calibration. Outcome: Revenue growth 7–9% YoY; margins stabilize at 23–25%.

INFY – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 14-Jan-26

FY’27 Outlook: Base case projects 4–6% revenue growth, stable 21–22% margins, and 8–10% EPS rise, backed by tariff resolutions, AI scaling, and discretionary rebound. Bear case warns of <2% growth, 19–20% margins, and flat EPS if tariffs persist and AI lags. Bull case eyes 8%+ revenue, 23%+ margins, and 15%+ EPS via AI-driven surges and M&A.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Tariff resolutions (Manufacturing stabilization), AI deal conversion (6 value pools scale), FS/EU discretionary rebound.
Outcome: Revenue growth 4–6% (FY’27), margins stable at 21–22% (productivity offsets wage hikes), EPS +8–10% YoY. Buybacks resume at $1–1.5 bn/year.