Ferrous Metals Archives

JINDALSTEL – Jindal Steel – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-May-26

JINDALSTEL’s topline growth is volume-led (Angul ramp-up), margins hinge on value-added mix recovery and coking coal stability, while bottomline faces capex ROI and write-down headwinds.

1–2 minutes

Also see: JINDALSTEL – Jindal Steel – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 1-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Angul achieves 11M tonnes, value-added mix recovers to 65%, coking coal +$25/tonne, and slurry pipeline saves INR 750/tonne by H2FY27. Revenue: +10% YoY, EBITDA/tonne: INR 10,500, PAT margin: ~5.5%.

JINDALSTEL – Jindal Steel – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 1-May-26

JINDALSTEL’s FY26 shows 14% production growth, 61% VAS mix, and CWIP transitioning to PPE. Debt‑funded capex compressed FCF and margins, with recurring exceptional losses clouding credibility. FY27 hinges on volume growth vs rising fixed costs; realization per tonne and WC normalization are key re‑rating triggers.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Q4FY26 net revenue hit ₹16,218 Cr — a 23% QoQ surge and 23% YoY jump, driven by record steel sales of 2.62 MT (+15% QoQ, +23% YoY).
FY26 net revenue grew 7% YoY (₹49,765 Cr → ₹53,225 Cr), lagging volume growth of 9%, implying mild realization pressure per tonne.
Domestic bias (95% of sales) kept the topline insulated from global steel price volatility; export share stayed thin at 7%.

Bottomline

FY26 PAT rose 18% YoY (₹2,846 Cr → ₹3,361 Cr) despite a ₹871 Cr exceptional loss — underlying earnings quality is improving.
Q4FY26 PAT of ₹1,041 Cr reversed Q4FY25’s loss of ₹304 Cr; Q3FY26 was a weak ₹189 Cr, making Q4 a decisive recovery quarter.
Deferred tax reversal of ₹603 Cr in Q4FY26 flattered reported PAT; pre-exceptional, pre-tax operational profit was ₹1,901 Cr — still a solid QoQ step-up from ₹398 Cr.

Margins

Adjusted EBITDA for FY26 was ₹9,099 Cr on revenue of ₹53,225 Cr → EBITDA margin of 17.1%, down from 18.8% in FY25 (₹9,339 Cr on ₹49,765 Cr).
Q4FY26 adjusted EBITDA of ₹2,647 Cr on revenue of ₹16,218 Cr → Q4 EBITDA margin of 16.3%; Q4FY25 was 17.1% (₹2,251 Cr on ₹13,183 Cr) — year-on-year margin compression persists.
FY26 net profit margin: ₹3,361 Cr ÷ ₹53,225 Cr = 6.3%, up from 5.7% in FY25 — bottomline margin expanded even as EBITDA margin contracted, aided by tax dynamics.

Growth Trajectory

Steel production scaled 14% YoY (8.12 MT → 9.25 MT) with capacity at 15.6 MTPA, leaving meaningful headroom for further volume growth.
EBITDA/tonne of ₹10,482 for FY26 is disclosed; volume-led growth is outpacing realization improvement, signaling a tonnage-first strategy.
Depreciation jumped 15% YoY (₹2,768 Cr → ₹3,171 Cr), reflecting assets commissioned from a ₹10,607 Cr FY25 capex program — growth investment is transitioning to operational output.

TATASTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

Tata Steel’s topline growth hinges on India volume ramp (6M+ tons) and EU price recovery (€700/t), while bottomline faces coking coal/EAF execution risks; margins likely 22–26% in base case but vulnerable to policy delays and input inflation.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

UK quotas revised by Q3 2026 → EBITDA turns positive (£50M).
CBAM pass-through successful → Netherlands EBITDA at €250M.
India realisations up ₹2,300/t → EBITDA margin at 22–24%.
Implication: Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x; FCF supports ₹15,000 crore capex.

JINDALSTEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 31-Jan-26

JINDALSTEL’s topline growth (volume-driven) outpaces margin recovery (mix/cost normalization) in FY27, with EBITDA accretion hinging on BOF3 utilization and flat product penetration; leverage trajectory remains the swing factor.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) BOF3 reaches 66% utilization in FY27; (2) Flat mix hits 55% with value-added at 68%; (3) Coking coal costs +$15/ton (vs. +$20 guided).
Outcome: EBITDA/ton ₹8,000–₹8,500 (Q4FY26 exit rate); net debt/EBITDA 1.4–1.5x by FY27. Slurry pipeline saves ₹800/ton (FY27E). Realizations track industry +₹500/ton premium on mix. Modeling anchor: PAT ₹1,200–₹1,500Cr in FY27.

JSWSTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

JSW Steel’s topline growth (10–15% CAGR) hinges on domestic demand (7–9%) and Odisha/Dolvi execution; bottomline leverage to capex timing and coking coal costs; margins (14–16%) depend on value-added mix expansion and CBAM mitigation, with structural support from raw material security and policy tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key variables: BPSL closure by March 2026; BF-3 ramp-up on schedule (April 2026); 7–9% domestic demand growth.
Outcome: Net debt/EBITDA normalizes to 2x by FY27 as BPSL cash (Rs.24,400 crore) funds capex. Odisha Phase-1 (5M tonnes) and Dolvi Phase-3 (5M tonnes) deliver 10M tonnes incremental capacity by FY28, supporting 15%+ EBITDA margins. CBAM impact limited to <5% of export volumes; Europe realisations adjust via price pass-through. Topline: 10–12% CAGR; bottomline: 15–18% EPS growth.