Ferrous Metals Archives

TATASTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

Tata Steel’s topline growth hinges on India volume ramp (6M+ tons) and EU price recovery (€700/t), while bottomline faces coking coal/EAF execution risks; margins likely 22–26% in base case but vulnerable to policy delays and input inflation.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

UK quotas revised by Q3 2026 → EBITDA turns positive (£50M).
CBAM pass-through successful → Netherlands EBITDA at €250M.
India realisations up ₹2,300/t → EBITDA margin at 22–24%.
Implication: Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x; FCF supports ₹15,000 crore capex.

JINDALSTEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 31-Jan-26

JINDALSTEL’s topline growth (volume-driven) outpaces margin recovery (mix/cost normalization) in FY27, with EBITDA accretion hinging on BOF3 utilization and flat product penetration; leverage trajectory remains the swing factor.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) BOF3 reaches 66% utilization in FY27; (2) Flat mix hits 55% with value-added at 68%; (3) Coking coal costs +$15/ton (vs. +$20 guided).
Outcome: EBITDA/ton ₹8,000–₹8,500 (Q4FY26 exit rate); net debt/EBITDA 1.4–1.5x by FY27. Slurry pipeline saves ₹800/ton (FY27E). Realizations track industry +₹500/ton premium on mix. Modeling anchor: PAT ₹1,200–₹1,500Cr in FY27.

JSWSTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

JSW Steel’s topline growth (10–15% CAGR) hinges on domestic demand (7–9%) and Odisha/Dolvi execution; bottomline leverage to capex timing and coking coal costs; margins (14–16%) depend on value-added mix expansion and CBAM mitigation, with structural support from raw material security and policy tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key variables: BPSL closure by March 2026; BF-3 ramp-up on schedule (April 2026); 7–9% domestic demand growth.
Outcome: Net debt/EBITDA normalizes to 2x by FY27 as BPSL cash (Rs.24,400 crore) funds capex. Odisha Phase-1 (5M tonnes) and Dolvi Phase-3 (5M tonnes) deliver 10M tonnes incremental capacity by FY28, supporting 15%+ EBITDA margins. CBAM impact limited to <5% of export volumes; Europe realisations adjust via price pass-through. Topline: 10–12% CAGR; bottomline: 15–18% EPS growth.