GDP Archives - ChartAlert®

India’s 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence (PIIE)

The authors — Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — imply India’s post-2011 GDP growth was structurally overstated by ~1.5–2.0% due to deflator and informal-sector mismeasurement, forcing investors to haircut cyclical exposures, reassess consumption-driven bets, and price in policy recalibration risks.

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Based on the paper “India’s 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence” by authors Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics).

Union Budget 2026-27 (presented on 1-Feb-26)

Nominal GDP grows 9.5% with disinvestment at 70% of target (₹56,000 crore), keeping fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP. Stable spreads and 80% capex execution drive 6.2% growth, though subsidy rollbacks persist; equities expect 12–14% earnings, INR steadies yet oil-sensitive.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Nominal GDP growth at 9.5%; disinvestment at 70% of target (Rs 56,000 crore).
Outcome: Fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP (0.2% slippage), with sovereign spreads stable. Capex execution at 80% supports 6.2% real growth, but subsidy rationalization faces partial rollbacks in H2. Equity markets price in 12–14% earnings growth; INR stabilizes but remains vulnerable to oil shocks.

Indus Valley Annual Report 2025: India’s Consumption Boom and Investment Implications

India’s consumption boom is transforming investment opportunities, driven by rising incomes, digital adoption, and premiumization. From Quick Commerce to luxury real estate, shifting consumer trends present new avenues for traders and investors. Explore key insights from the **Indus Valley Annual Report 2025** to stay ahead in India’s evolving market.

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Indus Valley Annual Report 2025 – by Blume Ventures

How Budget 2025 Will Impact the Indian Stock Market

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Discover which sectors and stocks could benefit from India’s Budget 2025 reforms.

The Indian Budget 2025 introduces transformative tax reforms, channeling approximately ₹1,00,000 crores into the hands of the middle class. This surge in disposable income is set to reshape consumer spending patterns, unlocking growth opportunities across key sectors and driving momentum in specific NSE and BSE-listed stocks.

Economic Survey 2024-25: Key Highlights and Insights

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The Economic Survey 2024-25, presented on January 31, 2025, provides an in-depth review of India’s economic performance, challenges, and growth outlook. Serving as a prelude to the Union Budget 2025-26, it outlines key sectoral developments and the government’s focus on sustainable growth.

Structural slowdown in India’s economy — Manik Narain, UBS (Jan-2025)

UBS’s January 2025 report, led by Manik Narain, warns of a structural slowdown in India’s $4 trillion economy, advising investors to short the rupee and adopt an underweight position in equities. The decline is attributed to long-term issues, not just cyclical factors like oil prices or government spending cuts.

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UBS’s recent report (Jan-2025), led by Manik Narain, highlights a significant structural slowdown in India’s economy, prompting the bank to recommend investors short the Indian rupee and adopt an underweight position in Indian equities.

This assessment comes as India’s economy, valued at approximately $4 trillion, experiences a decline that cannot be solely attributed to cyclical factors such as oil price fluctuations or decreased government spending.