Passenger Cars & UVs Archives

TMPV (Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

Tata Motors’ Base case: JLR stabilizes with flat China volumes and timely RR EV launch, while Tata PV margins hold at 6–8%, FCF neutral by FY27. Bear case sees deeper China declines and bottlenecks, margins <5%. Bull case lifts orders, Sierra scales, margins 9–10%, FCF positive.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

JLR stabilizes: China volumes flatline (-20% YoY), RR EV launch on time. Tata PV executes Sierra ramp, PLI accruals steady. Outcome: JLR EBIT 0–2%, Tata PV margin 6–8%; FCF neutral by FY27.

M&M – Q3 FY26 Analyst Meet – 11-Feb-26

M&M’s SUV/LCV growth 15–18%, EVs hit 80k units by FY27; revenue CAGR 12–15%, margins 10–11%, ROE 18–20%. Bear case: Commodity shocks, EV capex; growth slows to 5–7%, EPS down 10–15%. Bull case: EV surge, tractor boom; CAGR 18–20%, margins 12–13%, ROE 22–24%.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Auto Demand: SUV/LCV growth sustains at 15–18% (GST tailwind, replacement cycle), with premium mix stabilizing at 60%.
EV Scaling: 80,000 EV units/year achieved by FY27 (9S/9E demand), with PLI accruals at 10–12%; globalization limited to Australia/NZ.
Implication: Revenue CAGR of 12–15%, EBIT margins at 10–11%, and ROE sustained at 18–20%.

HYUNDAI – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

HYUNDAI’s topline growth (6–8%) and EBITDA margins (11–12%) hinge on SUV demand resilience, export diversification, and cost absorption at Pune/Chennai plants; commodity inflation and regulatory execution remain key swing factors.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Commodity costs stabilize; Venue backlog clears by H2 FY26; exports grow 15–18% (vs. 21% YoY). CRETA maintains pricing power.
Outcome: EBITDA margin 11–12%, revenue growth 6–8%. Chennai utilization recovers to 85%+ by FY27, supporting 7% CAGR.

MARUTI – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Jan-26

Maruti Suzuki’s Base case sees 5–7% industry growth, stable commodity costs, and EVs at 5% sales by FY27, driving 8–10% EPS growth. Bear case slows to 3% growth with margin compression and delayed EV rollout. Bull case accelerates to 10%+ growth, margins above 9%, and strong EV adoption.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Industry growth stabilizes at 5–7%, with Maruti at +200 bps; (2) Commodity costs flat YoY; (3) EV contributes 5% of sales by FY27.
Outcome: EBIT margin 7.8–8.3% (operating leverage offsets 50 bps commodity drag). Exports grow 10–12%, supported by VICTORIS. EPS growth 8–10%, in line with historical averages. Capex remains INR 10K–12K crore/year.