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POWERGRID – Power Grid Corporation – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 18-May-26

Power Grid Corporation’s topline growth is structurally robust (₹15 lakh crore+ opportunity), but bottomline and margins hinge on execution pace (CapEx → capitalization conversion) and cost mitigation (RoW, supply chain, IRR protection).

1–2 minutes

Also see: POWERGRID – Power Grid Corporation – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 15-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

CapEx sustains at ₹40,000–45,000 crore/year (FY27–FY29) with ₹30,000–35,000 crore capitalization, driven by TBCB pipeline execution (₹1.1 lakh crore bidding) and HVDC rollouts (2–3/year). RoW and supply chain bottlenecks ease via market rate mechanisms and OEM expansions. PAT grows 8–10% CAGR (FY26–FY29) on capitalization tailwinds; margins stable (~25% EBITDA) as cost inflation offset by change-in-law claims. ESG leadership and global PPPs add 5–10% to valuation premium.

KPIGREEN – KPI Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-May-26

KPIGREEN/ KPI Green Energy’s topline growth (40–50% CAGR) hinges on IPP execution and BESS scaling, while margins (33–36% EBITDA) depend on IPP-CPP mix optimization—bottomline resilience requires curtailing interest burden via phase-wise commissioning.

1–2 minutes

Also see: KPIGREEN – KPI Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 6-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: IPP additions at 1.2–1.5 GW/year, BESS margins at 15–18%, EPC order book sustains 40–50% growth.
Outcome: Revenue/PAT CAGR 40–45%, EBITDA margins stable at 33–36%, ROE recovers to 16–18% by FY28. Promoter pledge released by March’27; curtailment risks partially mitigated by green corridors.

KPIGREEN – KPI Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 6-May-26

KPI Green’s FY26 delivered 55%+ revenue and PAT growth with stable margins despite debt quadrupling. Risks: negative FCF, WC intensity from inventory/receivables. Positives: CFO doubled, EPS +49% with minimal dilution, client advances signal strong order book. Re‑rating hinges on CWIP converting to revenue, margin inflection, and FCF recovery.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from Operations surged 55.3% YoY (₹1,73,545 L → ₹2,69,591 L), driven almost entirely by captive power project sales (₹1,51,806 L → ₹2,44,646 L, +61.2%).
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹79,581 L grew 39.8% YoY and 20.0% QoQ, confirming accelerating quarterly momentum.
Power & services revenue grew modestly (+14.3% YoY), signalling the EPC/CPP segment is the dominant growth engine.

Bottomline

PAT grew 56.6% YoY (₹32,528 L → ₹50,924 L); Q4FY26 PAT of ₹15,548 L grew 49.2% YoY and 23.6% QoQ.
Deferred tax liability of ₹14,631 L (FY26) vs. ₹6,704 L (FY25) inflated tax outgo significantly; cash tax paid was only ₹3,850 L — PAT quality is supported by timing differences, not aggressive provisioning.
Basic EPS rose from ₹16.23 to ₹24.13 (+48.7%), on a nearly flat share count — no dilution drag on per-share earnings.

Margins

EBIT margin (segment results before unallocable): Segment profit ₹78,675 L on revenue ₹2,69,591 L = 29.2%, up from ₹51,466 L / ₹1,73,545 L = 29.7% — effectively flat, suggesting scale hasn’t yet translated to margin expansion.
PBT margin: ₹69,091 L / ₹2,74,152 L = 25.2% vs. ₹44,091 L / ₹1,75,516 L = 25.1% — remarkably stable despite a 3x rise in interest costs (₹4,504 L → ₹14,147 L).
PAT margin: ₹50,924 L / ₹2,74,152 L = 18.6% vs. ₹32,528 L / ₹1,75,516 L = 18.5% — near-perfect margin retention at scale.

Growth Trajectory

Total assets doubled YoY (₹4,79,207 L → ₹9,88,206 L, +106%), reflecting an aggressive capacity-build cycle — asset base growing faster than revenue.
Q4 sequential revenue growth (+20% QoQ) and PAT growth (+23.6% QoQ) indicate the ramp is still in progress, not plateauing.
Long-term borrowings surged from ₹86,160 L to ₹3,66,600 L (+325%) — the company is bet-sizing its next growth leg through debt-funded capex.

TATAPOWER – name – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-May-26

Tata Power’s topline growth hinges on demand and execution; bottomline resilience depends on SPPA pass-throughs and Odisha efficiency; margins sensitive to curtailment and DCR costs.

1–2 minutes

Also see: TATAPOWER – Tata Power Company – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 12-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Power demand grows 6–7%, with Mundra SPPAs finalized by Q2FY27. 2.5 GW renewable additions in FY27 (slight delay in 50% of pipeline). Odisha DISCOM reduces AT&C losses to 14% by FY28. Indonesian coal taxes add 1–2% cost, offset by pass-through. Result: EBITDA CAGR 10–12%, PAT ~INR 5,500 crore by FY28, margins stable.

POWERGRID – Power Grid Corporation – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 15-May-26

PowerGrid’s FY26 shows accelerated capex (₹43,654 Cr CWIP, +54%) building future tariff revenues, with near‑term softness expected. Risks: 8.9% pre‑tax profit decline, opaque other‑expense spike, stretched receivables. PAT beat is tax‑driven; re‑rating hinges on asset capitalisation outpacing finance costs — yield‑plus‑pipeline story until then.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew a modest 2.1% YoY (₹45,792 Cr → ₹46,733 Cr); transmission segment revenue actually declined 1.6% YoY (₹44,777 Cr → ₹44,083 Cr), with growth offset by consultancy surging 106% YoY (₹1,137 Cr → ₹2,347 Cr).
Q4FY26 revenue (₹11,666 Cr) was the weakest quarter of FY26, down 5.9% vs Q3 and 5.0% vs Q4FY25 — a notable sequential and YoY dip.
Other income fell sharply — ₹1,667 Cr in FY25 to ₹952 Cr in FY26 (-42.9%) — dragging total income flat despite operational growth.

Bottomline

Reported PAT rose 2.6% YoY (₹15,521 Cr → ₹15,928 Cr), but this masks a large deferred tax credit of ₹4,581 Cr in FY26 vs a charge of ₹410 Cr in FY25 — a swing of ~₹4,991 Cr.
Pre-tax profit (excluding regulatory deferral) declined 8.9% YoY (₹19,018 Cr → ₹17,321 Cr), reflecting genuine earnings pressure.
Regulatory deferral account swung from a ₹276 Cr income in FY25 to a ₹2,774 Cr expense (net of tax) in FY26, compressing stated profits materially.

Margins

Total expenses grew 6.7% YoY (₹28,331 Cr → ₹30,231 Cr); other expenses spiked 47.6% (₹4,123 Cr → ₹6,085 Cr) — the single largest cost deterioration, warranting scrutiny.
Finance costs declined 2.9% YoY (₹8,700 Cr → ₹8,448 Cr) despite higher borrowings — suggests favourable refinancing or mix shift.
Segment EBIT margin compressed in transmission (EBIT ₹27,125 Cr → ₹26,353 Cr on near-flat revenue), while consultancy EBIT nearly tripled (₹150 Cr → ₹403 Cr) — a bright but small spot.

Growth Trajectory

EPS (excluding regulatory deferral) grew 22.7% YoY (₹16.39 → ₹20.11), largely tax-driven; EPS including regulatory deferral grew only 2.6% (₹16.69 → ₹17.13).
Capex accelerated sharply — investing outflows hit ₹37,279 Cr in FY26 vs ₹24,134 Cr in FY25 (+54.5%) — signalling aggressive network expansion ahead.
CWIP jumped from ₹33,269 Cr to ₹43,654 Cr (+31.2%), building a substantial asset pipeline that will convert to revenue-generating PPE over the next 2–4 years.

TATAPOWER – Tata Power Company – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 12-May-26

Tata Power’s FY26 shows Thermal collapse offset by Renewables/T&D growth, but OCF halved, debt accelerated, and EPS fell 27%. Transition is intact, yet sustainability hinges on Renewables/T&D margins compounding faster than leverage costs. FY27 signposts: OCF recovery and debt/equity trajectory.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

FY26 revenue from operations fell 4.7% YoY (₹65,478 Cr → ₹62,429 Cr), driven by a sharp collapse in Thermal & Hydro segment revenue (₹19,739 Cr → ₹11,636 Cr, down 41%), likely from fuel cost pass-through reduction and lower merchant tariffs.
T&D segment offset the decline, growing 5.7% YoY (₹39,121 Cr → ₹41,339 Cr); Renewables surged 52.2% (₹9,876 Cr → ₹15,028 Cr), becoming the second-largest revenue segment.
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹14,900 Cr was 12.8% below Q4FY25 (₹17,096 Cr), reflecting the full-year Thermal drag concentrated in Q4.

Bottomline

Net profit grew 7.2% YoY (₹4,775 Cr → ₹5,118 Cr) despite topline contraction — a margin-led improvement story.
PAT attributable to parent shareholders: ₹3,745 Cr (FY26) vs ₹3,943 Cr (FY25), actually down ~5%; NCI profit jumped to ₹1,373 Cr from ₹832 Cr, skewing consolidated growth optics.
EPS (before regulatory deferral) fell from ₹14.64 to ₹10.72 — a more honest signal of per-share earnings dilution than the headline PAT number.

Margins

Operating margin improved to 16% in FY26 from 15% in FY25 — modest but directionally right given Thermal’s higher-cost structure shrinking in the mix.
Net profit margin at 8% (FY26) vs 7% (FY25); cost of fuel collapsed from ₹13,918 Cr to ₹7,498 Cr (down 46%), but raw material/construction costs doubled (₹4,921 Cr → ₹8,618 Cr), signaling EPC/capex execution ramp.
Finance costs rose 11.8% YoY (₹4,702 Cr → ₹5,257 Cr), capping margin expansion upside.

Growth Trajectory

Renewables segment results grew 50.7% YoY (₹2,881 Cr → ₹4,341 Cr); T&D segment results grew 37.2% (₹3,206 Cr → ₹4,399 Cr) — both outpacing the consolidated business.
Thermal segment results cratered 48.5% (₹3,813 Cr → ₹1,965 Cr); as Thermal’s weight shrinks, the blended margin profile should structurally improve.
Regulatory deferral additions of ₹1,252 Cr (vs. a negative ₹976 Cr in FY25) flatter FY26 PBT — underlying operational earnings recovery is partially regulatory-assisted.

ADANIGREEN – Adani Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 24-Apr-26

Adani Green’s topline growth hinges on transmission execution and BESS scaling; bottomline resilience depends on PPA conversion and curtailment mitigation; margins stay robust if BESS economics hold.

1–2 minutes

Also see: ADANIGREEN – Adani Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Transmission capacity in Khavda expands on schedule (14–15 GW by Mar 2027), enabling 5 GW annual RE additions and 10 GWh BESS deployment. Curtailment losses abate to by FY28. Blended PPA rates stabilize at INR 2.80–3.10/unit, supporting 20%+ EBITDA growth and margin stability at ~90%. BESS economics meet targets (INR 25 lakh/MWh EBITDA).

WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 17-Apr-26

Waaree’s topline growth is order-book-dependent, with FY27 revenue hinging on 36 GWp pipeline conversions, while bottomline resilience relies on 15%+ EBITDA discipline and IPP/O&M recurring revenue streams; margins face cyclical pressure if competitive bidding intensifies or module costs surge.

1–2 minutes

Also see: WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Order conversion rate ~30% for domestic pipeline, BESS tenders materialize in H2 FY27, module cost increases passed through.
Outcome: Revenue grows 15–20% YoY in FY27, driven by 2.8 GWp execution + 1–1.5 GWp new orders. EBITDA margins stabilize at 18–19%; OCF turns positive as IPP assets ramp. Valuation supported by order book visibility and IPP recurring revenue.

ADANIGREEN – Adani Green Energy – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

Adani Green’s FY26 shows capacity build‑out with OCF support, but equity story hinges on tariff‑debt spread narrowing. Flat PAT masks progress: capacity growth, easing NCI dilution, rising equity share. Risks: DISCOM receivables, ₹98,000+ Cr debt refinancing, CWIP conversion. PAT margin inflection likely FY28–29 as capex moderates.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Core power supply revenue grew 22% YoY (₹9,495 Cr → ₹11,602 Cr), reflecting new capacity additions coming online.
Equipment/goods sales fell 53% YoY (₹1,552 Cr → ₹724 Cr) as fewer EPC-type pass-through contracts were executed; total revenue still rose 11% (₹12,422 Cr → ₹13,819 Cr).
Q4 FY26 was seasonally the strongest quarter (₹3,727 Cr vs ₹2,837 Cr in Q3), driven by higher solar irradiation and wind output.

Bottomline

Consolidated PAT flat at ₹1,987 Cr vs ₹2,001 Cr — topline growth fully absorbed by rising finance costs (₹5,492 Cr → ₹6,484 Cr, +18%) and depreciation (₹2,498 Cr → ₹3,372 Cr, +35%).
PAT attributable to equity holders grew 17% (₹1,495 Cr → ₹1,753 Cr at TCI level), with NCI share declining — a structurally positive shift for listed shareholders.
EPS improved to ₹9.65 from ₹8.37 despite a marginally larger share count (1,647 Cr vs 1,584 Cr shares), signalling earnings accretion from equity raised.

Margins

Operating profit before working capital (from cash flow): ₹10,912 Cr on total income of ₹13,819 Cr → implied operating cash margin ~79%, up from ~73% (₹9,046 Cr / ₹12,422 Cr) — reflecting high operating leverage of renewable assets.
Finance costs consume ~47% of operating cash profit (₹6,484 Cr / ₹10,912 Cr), leaving thin residual for equity holders after debt service.
Net profit margin: 14.4% (₹1,987 Cr / ₹13,819 Cr), roughly unchanged from 16.1% in FY25 — debt burden is the primary margin suppressor.

Growth Trajectory

Power generation segment revenue grew 26% YoY (₹9,679 Cr → ₹12,227 Cr), outpacing total revenue growth — core business is accelerating as the equipment pass-through segment shrinks.
Capex of ~₹26,097 Cr in FY26 vs ₹24,776 Cr in FY25 confirms unrelenting capacity build-out; PPE grew from ₹76,218 Cr → ₹97,070 Cr (+27%) and CWIP from ₹14,479 Cr → ₹19,016 Cr, signalling strong near-term visibility.
Operating cash flows grew 13% (₹8,957 Cr → ₹10,135 Cr), tracking asset base expansion — a healthy sign that deployed capacity is generating proportionate cash.

WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-Apr-26

WAAREERTL’s FY26 doubled revenue with stable 19.5% EBITDA and no dilution, underscoring high‑quality EPS. Yet cash flow lags: receivables stretch, inventory spikes, FCF declines. FY27 hinges on cash conversion—normalize collections and premium valuation holds; persistently stretched cycles risk debt or dilution.

2–3 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from Operations grew 108.5% YoY — from ₹1,59,774.79 Lakh in FY25 to ₹3,33,142.22 Lakh in FY26. This is not incremental growth; it is a near-exact doubling of the business in one year.
The growth is almost entirely driven by the EPC Contracts segment, which grew from ₹1,57,236.41 Lakh to ₹3,30,487.06 Lakh — a 110% jump. Power Sale revenue grew modestly from ₹2,538.38 Lakh to ₹2,655.16 Lakh (4.6%), confirming WRTL is overwhelmingly an EPC execution machine, not a power generation business.
Other Income grew 38% from ₹1,480.21 Lakh to ₹2,042.56 Lakh — this is treasury income (interest on bank deposits and investments), which is a byproduct of the large cash balance, not core operations.

Bottomline

PAT (attributable to owners) grew 108.9% — from ₹22,916.09 Lakh to ₹47,869.54 Lakh — almost perfectly mirroring revenue growth. This is a healthy sign; profitability scaled proportionally, not by financial engineering.
Basic EPS grew 108.7% from ₹22.00 to ₹45.91. Share count barely moved (from 10.42 Cr to 10.43 Cr shares), so EPS growth is real and not diluted. This is shareholder-friendly.
Effective tax rate edged up slightly from 23.8% in FY25 to 25.2% in FY26 — a marginal headwind on PAT, but not material.
FY25 PAT was burdened by an exceptional loss of ₹401.88 Lakh. FY26 had no exceptional item, making the FY26 earnings base cleaner.

Margins

EBITDA (PBIT + D&A): FY26 = ₹64,823.41 Lakh, FY25 = ₹31,086.67 Lakh.
EBITDA Margin: FY26 = 19.5%, FY25 = 19.5% — dead flat, to the decimal point.
EBIT (PBEIT) Margin: FY26 = 19.2%, FY25 = 19.1% — effectively unchanged.
PAT Margin: FY26 = 14.37%, FY25 = 14.33% — again, essentially flat.
The single root cause behind this margin stability: Cost of EPC Contracts as a percentage of revenue barely moved — 78.2% in FY26 vs 77.5% in FY25. WRTL is executing at scale without giving up pricing or absorbing disproportionate cost inflation. Economies of scale are neither expanding nor compressing margins — the business appears to operate on standardized, contract-locked margins.
Finance costs fell in absolute terms from ₹1,483.82 Lakh to ₹1,328.83 Lakh, and as a percentage of revenue from 0.93% to 0.40% — a genuine margin tailwind from deleveraging.
Employee costs as a percentage of revenue fell from 1.85% to 1.47% — operating leverage at work.

Growth Trajectory

The growth rate of 108.5% in FY26 is extraordinary but comes off a base that itself grew sharply. The key investor question is: can this be sustained, or is it a one-cycle burst?

The balance sheet and cash flows hold the answer.