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TATAPOWER – Tata Power Company – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 12-May-26

Tata Power’s FY26 shows Thermal collapse offset by Renewables/T&D growth, but OCF halved, debt accelerated, and EPS fell 27%. Transition is intact, yet sustainability hinges on Renewables/T&D margins compounding faster than leverage costs. FY27 signposts: OCF recovery and debt/equity trajectory.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

FY26 revenue from operations fell 4.7% YoY (₹65,478 Cr → ₹62,429 Cr), driven by a sharp collapse in Thermal & Hydro segment revenue (₹19,739 Cr → ₹11,636 Cr, down 41%), likely from fuel cost pass-through reduction and lower merchant tariffs.
T&D segment offset the decline, growing 5.7% YoY (₹39,121 Cr → ₹41,339 Cr); Renewables surged 52.2% (₹9,876 Cr → ₹15,028 Cr), becoming the second-largest revenue segment.
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹14,900 Cr was 12.8% below Q4FY25 (₹17,096 Cr), reflecting the full-year Thermal drag concentrated in Q4.

Bottomline

Net profit grew 7.2% YoY (₹4,775 Cr → ₹5,118 Cr) despite topline contraction — a margin-led improvement story.
PAT attributable to parent shareholders: ₹3,745 Cr (FY26) vs ₹3,943 Cr (FY25), actually down ~5%; NCI profit jumped to ₹1,373 Cr from ₹832 Cr, skewing consolidated growth optics.
EPS (before regulatory deferral) fell from ₹14.64 to ₹10.72 — a more honest signal of per-share earnings dilution than the headline PAT number.

Margins

Operating margin improved to 16% in FY26 from 15% in FY25 — modest but directionally right given Thermal’s higher-cost structure shrinking in the mix.
Net profit margin at 8% (FY26) vs 7% (FY25); cost of fuel collapsed from ₹13,918 Cr to ₹7,498 Cr (down 46%), but raw material/construction costs doubled (₹4,921 Cr → ₹8,618 Cr), signaling EPC/capex execution ramp.
Finance costs rose 11.8% YoY (₹4,702 Cr → ₹5,257 Cr), capping margin expansion upside.

Growth Trajectory

Renewables segment results grew 50.7% YoY (₹2,881 Cr → ₹4,341 Cr); T&D segment results grew 37.2% (₹3,206 Cr → ₹4,399 Cr) — both outpacing the consolidated business.
Thermal segment results cratered 48.5% (₹3,813 Cr → ₹1,965 Cr); as Thermal’s weight shrinks, the blended margin profile should structurally improve.
Regulatory deferral additions of ₹1,252 Cr (vs. a negative ₹976 Cr in FY25) flatter FY26 PBT — underlying operational earnings recovery is partially regulatory-assisted.

WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 17-Apr-26

Waaree’s topline growth is order-book-dependent, with FY27 revenue hinging on 36 GWp pipeline conversions, while bottomline resilience relies on 15%+ EBITDA discipline and IPP/O&M recurring revenue streams; margins face cyclical pressure if competitive bidding intensifies or module costs surge.

1–2 minutes

Also see: WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Order conversion rate ~30% for domestic pipeline, BESS tenders materialize in H2 FY27, module cost increases passed through.
Outcome: Revenue grows 15–20% YoY in FY27, driven by 2.8 GWp execution + 1–1.5 GWp new orders. EBITDA margins stabilize at 18–19%; OCF turns positive as IPP assets ramp. Valuation supported by order book visibility and IPP recurring revenue.

WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-Apr-26

WAAREERTL’s FY26 doubled revenue with stable 19.5% EBITDA and no dilution, underscoring high‑quality EPS. Yet cash flow lags: receivables stretch, inventory spikes, FCF declines. FY27 hinges on cash conversion—normalize collections and premium valuation holds; persistently stretched cycles risk debt or dilution.

2–3 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from Operations grew 108.5% YoY — from ₹1,59,774.79 Lakh in FY25 to ₹3,33,142.22 Lakh in FY26. This is not incremental growth; it is a near-exact doubling of the business in one year.
The growth is almost entirely driven by the EPC Contracts segment, which grew from ₹1,57,236.41 Lakh to ₹3,30,487.06 Lakh — a 110% jump. Power Sale revenue grew modestly from ₹2,538.38 Lakh to ₹2,655.16 Lakh (4.6%), confirming WRTL is overwhelmingly an EPC execution machine, not a power generation business.
Other Income grew 38% from ₹1,480.21 Lakh to ₹2,042.56 Lakh — this is treasury income (interest on bank deposits and investments), which is a byproduct of the large cash balance, not core operations.

Bottomline

PAT (attributable to owners) grew 108.9% — from ₹22,916.09 Lakh to ₹47,869.54 Lakh — almost perfectly mirroring revenue growth. This is a healthy sign; profitability scaled proportionally, not by financial engineering.
Basic EPS grew 108.7% from ₹22.00 to ₹45.91. Share count barely moved (from 10.42 Cr to 10.43 Cr shares), so EPS growth is real and not diluted. This is shareholder-friendly.
Effective tax rate edged up slightly from 23.8% in FY25 to 25.2% in FY26 — a marginal headwind on PAT, but not material.
FY25 PAT was burdened by an exceptional loss of ₹401.88 Lakh. FY26 had no exceptional item, making the FY26 earnings base cleaner.

Margins

EBITDA (PBIT + D&A): FY26 = ₹64,823.41 Lakh, FY25 = ₹31,086.67 Lakh.
EBITDA Margin: FY26 = 19.5%, FY25 = 19.5% — dead flat, to the decimal point.
EBIT (PBEIT) Margin: FY26 = 19.2%, FY25 = 19.1% — effectively unchanged.
PAT Margin: FY26 = 14.37%, FY25 = 14.33% — again, essentially flat.
The single root cause behind this margin stability: Cost of EPC Contracts as a percentage of revenue barely moved — 78.2% in FY26 vs 77.5% in FY25. WRTL is executing at scale without giving up pricing or absorbing disproportionate cost inflation. Economies of scale are neither expanding nor compressing margins — the business appears to operate on standardized, contract-locked margins.
Finance costs fell in absolute terms from ₹1,483.82 Lakh to ₹1,328.83 Lakh, and as a percentage of revenue from 0.93% to 0.40% — a genuine margin tailwind from deleveraging.
Employee costs as a percentage of revenue fell from 1.85% to 1.47% — operating leverage at work.

Growth Trajectory

The growth rate of 108.5% in FY26 is extraordinary but comes off a base that itself grew sharply. The key investor question is: can this be sustained, or is it a one-cycle burst?

The balance sheet and cash flows hold the answer.

TATAPOWER – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 4-Feb-26

TATAPOWER’s topline growth (10–15% YoY) hinges on renewable execution and Mundra restart, while bottomline resilience (PAT +15–20% in base case) depends on regulatory true-ups and cost discipline; margins (EBITDA 24–28%) face structural pressure from DCR transition and transmission risks.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Mundra restarts by Q1 FY27, adding ₹500–600 crore annual PAT, while 2.5 GW renewable capacity is commissioned with 6-month transmission lag. EBITDA grows 10–12% YoY, supported by Odisha Discom cash flows (₹3,200 crore annualized) and stable solar margins (24–26%). PAT rises 15–20% YoY on Mundra recovery and renewable ramp-up. PPP awards materialize in H2 FY27, driving distribution revenue growth.

POWERGRID – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

POWERGRID’s topline resilient (RE evacuation tailwinds), but bottomline faces 100–300bps margin compression from RoW costs and storage regulatory delays; CapEx efficiency (not volume) will dictate FCF conversion and EPS growth.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) RoW guidelines sustain execution + (2) Transformer relaxations approved.

₹32,000 crore FY26 CapEx achieved, with 80% TBCB realization.
HVDC Barmer-Kala Amb awarded in FY27, BESS tariffs approved by H2CY26.
Outcome: 12–15% revenue CAGR, margins stable at 28–30% (EBITDA/Revenue).

ADANIGREEN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

ADANIGREEN’s topline growth hinges on grid evacuation timing and merchant price recovery, while bottomline resilience depends on storage arbitrage execution and commodity cost containment; margins remain structurally high (90%+) but face cyclical pressure from wind volatility and merchant pricing.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Grid augmentation completes by March 2026 (2–3 GW), and wind speeds normalize in H1 FY27. Merchant realizations recover to ₹2.50–3.00/unit (solar) on peak demand. Battery storage (3.5 GWh) operationalizes as planned, enabling 10–15% revenue uplift from arbitrage. EBITDA margin sustains at 90%+, with ₹16,000 crore power supply EBITDA achieved by FY26 end. Debt/EBITDA improves to 5x by FY27.