POWERGRID’s topline resilient (RE evacuation tailwinds), but bottomline faces 100–300bps margin compression from RoW costs and storage regulatory delays; CapEx efficiency (not volume) will dictate FCF conversion and EPS growth.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) RoW guidelines sustain execution + (2) Transformer relaxations approved.
- ₹32,000 crore FY26 CapEx achieved, with 80% TBCB realization.
- HVDC Barmer-Kala Amb awarded in FY27, BESS tariffs approved by H2CY26.
- Outcome: 12–15% revenue CAGR, margins stable at 28–30% (EBITDA/Revenue).
Continue reading “POWERGRID – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26”
