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ETERNAL – Formerly Zomato – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Apr-26

ETERNAL’s topline growth hinges on quick commerce execution and competitive rationality, while margins depend on store productivity and ad monetization scaling—both unproven at target levels.

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Also see: ETERNAL – Formerly Zomato – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 28-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Competitive intensity persists but remains rational; Eternal executes on 60% quick commerce CAGR and 5–6% food delivery margins via geographic/assortment expansion. Dark store count reaches 3,000 by March 2027, with tier 2/3 contributing ~30% of NOV growth. Ad monetization scales linearly with GMV. $1B EBITDA by FY29 achieved through reinvestment discipline.

DMART – Avenue Supermarts – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 2-May-26

DMart’s FY26 shows 15.9% revenue growth (18.9% Q4) and aggressive store expansion. Margins compressed, finance costs doubled, and FCF turned negative — expected rollout effects, not structural weakness. Core moat intact, but earnings lag 2–3 years; re‑rating hinges on margin recovery as new stores mature.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew 15.9% YoY in FY26 (₹59,358 Cr → ₹68,821 Cr), sustaining double-digit growth despite a high base.
Q4 FY26 revenue of ₹17,684 Cr grew 18.9% YoY (vs. ₹14,872 Cr in Q4 FY25), the strongest quarterly YoY print this year — signals accelerating store-level throughput.
Q4 FY26 revenue sequentially declined ~2.3% vs. Q3 FY26 (₹18,101 Cr), consistent with Q3 being seasonally stronger (festive quarter).

Bottomline

FY26 net profit rose 9.7% YoY (₹2,707 Cr → ₹2,970 Cr), lagging revenue growth — cost inflation is eating into incremental revenue gains.
Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹656 Cr grew 19.2% YoY (vs. ₹551 Cr), suggesting Q4-specific cost discipline or favorable tax timing.
EPS (diluted) grew from ₹41.50 to ₹45.63 FY25→FY26 (+9.9% YoY), in line with PAT growth — minimal dilution from ESOP exercises.

Margins

FY26 operating margin held nearly flat at 7.54% vs. 7.56% in FY25 — impressive stability given cost headwinds, but zero expansion.
Net profit margin compressed 24 bps YoY (4.56% → 4.32%), driven by employee cost surge (+32.2% YoY: ₹1,166 Cr → ₹1,541 Cr) and finance cost doubling (+104.5%: ₹69 Cr → ₹142 Cr).
Q4 FY26 operating margin of 4.85% was the weakest quarter of FY26 — significantly below Q3’s 8.08% — suggesting Q4 cost structure pressure, including inventory build and employee expense step-up.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR implied over FY25→FY26 is 15.9%; PAT CAGR at 9.7% — a widening spread signals operating leverage is not flowing through to the bottom line.
Finance costs doubled YoY, tied to lease liability expansion (non-current lease liabilities: ₹556 Cr → ₹1,143 Cr) and new short-term borrowings (₹965 Cr appearing vs. nil in FY25) — the expansion cycle is becoming capital-intensive.
Store expansion is accelerating: PPE grew from ₹14,350 Cr to ₹17,587 Cr (+22.6%), and CWIP stands at ₹1,300 Cr, indicating a strong pipeline of new stores coming online.

ETERNAL – Formerly Zomato – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 28-Apr-26

Eternal’s FY26 hinges on Blinkit’s EBIT turnaround and food delivery’s compounding floor, but negative FCF, rising leases, Going Out’s 10x loss, and outsized ESOP costs constrain profitability. Long‑term investors may find Blinkit compelling, yet unit economics and dark store paybacks matter more than suppressed consolidated PAT.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Consolidated revenue surged to ₹54,364 Cr in FY26 from ₹20,243 Cr in FY25 (+168.6%), almost entirely driven by Blinkit scaling from ₹5,206 Cr to ₹37,779 Cr — lifting its revenue share from 25.7% to 69.5% of group total.
Q4FY26 revenue hit ₹17,292 Cr (+196.5% YoY vs ₹5,833 Cr), with Blinkit alone contributing ₹13,232 Cr (76.5% of quarterly revenue).
Food delivery grew steadily — ₹10,159 Cr in FY26 vs ₹8,080 Cr in FY25 (+25.7%), a solid but modest secondary engine.

Bottomline

PAT fell to ₹366 Cr in FY26 from ₹527 Cr in FY25 (-30.6%), despite 2.7x revenue growth — cost absorption from Blinkit’s rapid scale-up overwhelmed operating leverage.
Q4FY26 PAT improved to ₹174 Cr vs ₹39 Cr in Q4FY25, with sequential momentum (Q3FY26: ₹102 Cr) signalling quarterly recovery.
Total comprehensive income turned negative at -₹166 Cr in FY26 vs +₹655 Cr in FY25, reflecting mark-to-market losses on investments and currency effects below the PAT line.

Margins

EBITDA margin compressed to 4.8% in FY26 from 8.5% in FY25 (EBITDA: ₹2,604 Cr vs ₹1,714 Cr), as delivery and stock-in-trade costs scaled faster than revenue. (Verification: FY26 EBITDA = PBT ₹615 + D&A ₹1,597 + Finance costs ₹392 = ₹2,604 Cr; margin = ₹2,604/₹54,364 = 4.79% ✓)
PAT margin contracted sharply to 0.7% in FY26 from 2.6% in FY25 — Blinkit’s unit economics, while improving, dilute consolidated profitability at scale.
Q4FY26 EBITDA margin of 4.8% (₹828 Cr on ₹17,292 Cr) holds flat sequentially, suggesting stabilisation. (Verification: Q4FY26 EBITDA = PBT ₹228 + D&A ₹468 + Finance ₹132 = ₹828 Cr ✓)

Growth Trajectory

Blinkit’s EBIT swung from -₹21 Cr in FY25 to +₹430 Cr in FY26 — a structural profitability inflection for the fastest-growing segment.
Hyperpure turned EBIT-positive at ₹16 Cr in FY26 vs -₹43 Cr in FY25, validating the B2B supply chain thesis.
Going Out and residual segments remain loss-making (combined EBIT: -₹498 Cr in FY26), suggesting early-stage bets that require continued investment before contributing to profitability.

TRENT – Westside, Zudio, Star – Q4 FY26 Investor Presentation – 22-Apr-26

Trent’s brand strength, Tier II/III reach, and automation efficiencies drive mid‑teens growth and 25%+ EPS CAGR. Near‑term margins face input/store maturation pressures, but ROCE resilience and disciplined capital allocation distinguish structural winners from cyclical beneficiaries.

1–2 minutes

Also see: TRENT – Westside, Zudio, Star – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Stable consumer sentiment; successful capital raise and store maturation; input costs managed via sourcing diversity.
Outcome: Revenue growth 15–18% YoY; Op. EBITDA margins sustain at ~13–14%; ROCE remains >28%. EPS grows 20–25%, supported by store density and automation efficiencies.

TRENT – Westside, Zudio, Star – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-Apr-26

Trent’s capex‑driven expansion is scaling revenue/EBITDA with positive FCF and intact gross margins. PAT softness (8.57% vs 8.96%) stems from accelerated D&A, not erosion. Risks lie in lease obligations and normalized non‑operating income, constraining EPS flow‑through. Long‑term signals: same‑store sales and EBITDA‑to‑FCF conversion.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue grew 17.2% YoY (₹17,134.61 Cr → ₹20,074.21 Cr) in FY26, with Q4FY26 accelerating to 19.2% YoY (₹4,216.94 Cr → ₹5,027.99 Cr) — sustained double-digit volume-led growth rather than price-driven optionality.
Q4FY26 revenue fell 5.9% QoQ (₹5,345.06 Cr → ₹5,027.99 Cr), reflecting the structural seasonality of Q3 being the festive/peak quarter for fashion retail.
Gross margin held firm at 43.9% (FY26) vs 43.5% (FY25) — input cost discipline intact despite inflationary pressures on merchandise.

Bottomline

FY26 PAT grew 12.2% YoY (₹1,534.41 Cr → ₹1,721.33 Cr); growth lagged revenue due to a 52.1% surge in D&A (₹895.18 Cr → ₹1,361.19 Cr) from aggressive store rollouts.
Q4FY26 PAT jumped 32.6% YoY (₹311.60 Cr → ₹413.10 Cr), demonstrating strong operating leverage even in a seasonally softer quarter.
Associate income collapsed from ₹86.50 Cr (FY25) to ₹3.90 Cr (FY26), and other income halved (₹218.56 Cr → ₹114.84 Cr) — both suppressed PAT relative to underlying operating performance.

Margins

EBITDA margin expanded 146 bps YoY to 18.03% (EBITDA: ₹3,619.88 Cr vs ₹2,838.42 Cr), with Q4FY26 hitting 18.13% vs 16.33% — indicates operating leverage kicking in at scale.
EBIT margin was nearly flat at 11.25% (FY26) vs 11.34% (FY25), as D&A intensity rose from 5.2% to 6.8% of revenue — expansion capex creating a transient margin drag.
Net profit margin compressed to 8.57% from 8.96% — entirely attributable to the non-cash D&A step-up and income line normalisation, not core business deterioration.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR trajectory is consistent and accelerating at the Q4 level, confirming store count expansion is translating into durable top-line scaling.
EPS grew 11.2% YoY (₹43.51 → ₹48.37); below PAT growth rate of 12.2%, but consistent given stable share count — no dilution drag.
Total assets grew 24.5% YoY (₹9,419.64 Cr → ₹11,728.58 Cr), with PPE up 62.7% — capital-intensive expansion phase is underway and priced into near-term margins.

TRENT – Q3 FY26 Investor Presentation – 5-Feb-26

Trent’s topline (15–20% revenue CAGR) hinges on Tier II/III penetration and omnichannel scaling, while margins (13–15% EBITDA) face structural pressure from depreciation and input costs, and bottomline (10–13% PAT) growth depends on execution of cluster density and automation—all contingent on consumer sentiment recovery and competitive resilience.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Cluster density strategy delivers modest revenue synergies, and automation offsets depreciation headwinds. Key variables: (1) Tier II/III stores mature in 2–3 years; (2) EBITDA margins stabilize at 13–14%. Outcome: Revenue CAGR of 12–15%; PAT margins expand to 13% by FY28. Trigger: Gradual consumer sentiment recovery and stable input costs.

ETERNAL (Zomato) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Jan-26

ETERNAL’s topline: Growth hinges on competitive rationalization (50–100% YoY range) and Tier 2/3 penetration (30% NOV mix assumption); bottomline: ROCE-driven capex and margin volatility introduce 10–15% EPS variability; margins: 4–6% NOV achievable only if assortment expansion and automation offset competitive pressures.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Competition rationalizes in H2 2026, enabling 70–80% YoY growth with 50bps QoQ margin expansion. Store throughput stabilizes as assortment matures, and Tier 2/3 contributes 30% of NOV with 10% lower margins than Tier 1. ROCE converges to 40%+ by FY27, but free cash flow margins remain opaque. Implication: Topline meets guidance; margins expand to 4–5% NOV by FY26.

DMART – Q3 FY26 Investor Presentation – 10-Jan-26

DMART’s structural resilience in food demand supports mid-teens revenue growth, but margin compression and capex intensity limit EBITDA expansion to 50–100 bps and FCF generation, tying valuations to execution risks in cluster expansion and same-store productivity.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

LFL Growth Stability: LFL growth settles at 5–6%, with revenue/sq. ft. flat y-o-y. Store additions contribute 60% of revenue growth, but margin pressure persists.
Structural Margin Compression: EBITDA margins contract by 50 bps due to promotional intensity and input costs, partially offset by operating leverage.
Implication: Revenue CAGR of 12–14%; EBITDA margins at 8.5–9.0%. In line with consensus, but FCF lags due to capex.