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EICHERMOT – Eicher Motors – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-May-26

EICHERMOT/ Eicher Motors’ topline growth is structurally robust (premiumization + exports + EV), but margins hinge on commodity mitigation and capacity execution; financing JV adds long-term optionality.

1–2 minutes

Also see: EICHERMOT – Eicher Motors – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Key Variables: Commodity inflation stabilizes at 3–3.5%, premium motorcycle demand grows 15–20%, and Cheyyar expansion delivers 2M capacity by Q2 FY28.
Outlook: Revenue grows 12–15% CAGR (driven by Royal Enfield + VECV), margins stable at ~25% (price hikes + cost reductions offset inflation), and EV/Flying Flea contributes 5–10% to revenue by FY29. Financing JV scales to INR 5K–7K crores AUM by FY28.

EICHERMOT – Eicher Motors – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-May-26

Eicher Motors’ FY26 delivered 24% revenue growth, ₹3,530 Cr FCF, near‑zero leverage, and VECV JV momentum. Risks: 150 bps PAT margin compression and Q4 revenue stall. Re‑rating now hinges on margin leverage from new platforms and global scale‑up; treasury earnings floor strong but RE must grow without dilution.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations crossed ₹23,408 Cr in FY26 vs ₹18,870 Cr in FY25 — 24.0% YoY growth, driven by Royal Enfield volume expansion and premiumisation
Q4FY26 revenue at ₹6,080 Cr vs ₹5,241 Cr in Q4FY25 — 16.0% YoY growth; sequentially flat vs Q3FY26 (₹6,114 Cr)
Other income (investment returns) rose to ₹1,487 Cr in FY26 from ₹1,305 Cr — meaningful contributor given the large treasury corpus

Bottomline

PAT grew 16.5% YoY to ₹5,515 Cr (FY26) from ₹4,734 Cr (FY25); Q4FY26 PAT at ₹1,520 Cr, up 11.6% vs Q4FY25 (₹1,362 Cr)
JV profit contribution (VECV) rose to ₹798 Cr in FY26 from ₹700 Cr — 14.0% YoY; Q4FY26 VECV share surged to ₹323 Cr vs ₹248 Cr in Q4FY25
Basic EPS expanded to ₹201.09 in FY26 from ₹172.76 in FY25 — 16.4% YoY growth

Margins

FY26 EBITDA (PBT before JV + D&A + Finance costs): ₹6,359.70 + ₹840.37 + ₹71.53 = ₹7,271.60 Cr on revenue of ₹23,408 Cr → EBITDA margin ~31.1% vs ~30.7% in FY25 (₹5,233.26 + ₹729.33 + ₹54.34 = ₹6,016.93 Cr / ₹18,870 Cr) — marginal expansion
Net profit margin (PAT / Revenue from ops): 5,515 / 23,408 = 23.6% vs 4,734 / 18,870 = 25.1% in FY25 — 150bps compression, partly from higher tax (effective rate rose from 20.2% to 22.3%)
Raw material + traded goods as % of revenue: (12,502 + 835 − 270) / 23,408 = 55.4% vs (9,953 + 507 − 164) / 18,870 = 54.8% — modest input cost inflation absorbed

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR at 24% for FY26 points to strong demand; sequential flatness in Q4 warrants watching for volume plateau
PAT growth (16.5%) lagging revenue growth (24.0%) signals operating leverage not fully flowing through — cost base scaling faster than topline
VECV’s improving profit trajectory (14% YoY) adds earnings resilience via non-motorcycle diversification

TVSMOTOR – TVS Motor Company – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 13-May-26

TVS Motor’s topline growth hinges on export momentum and EV scaling, while margins depend on commodity offsets and premium mix; structural tailwinds (capacity, R&D, partnerships) outweigh cyclical risks if execution holds.

1–2 minutes

Also see: TVSMOTOR – TVS Motor Company – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 13-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Commodity inflation at 3–5%, supply chain resolves by H1 FY27, EV penetration at 8–9%, export growth at 15–20%.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% YoY, EBITDA margin sustains at 13%, and EV revenue reaches ~INR 7,000 crore. Capex execution on track; margin stability via price hikes and mix.

BAJAJ-AUTO – Bajaj Auto – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-May-26

Bajaj Auto’s topline resilience hinges on 150cc+ and EV outperformance, while margins face structural commodity headwinds offset by pricing and FX tailwinds; bottomline growth remains capital allocation-dependent (buyback, BACL, KTM).

1–2 minutes

Also see: BAJAJ-AUTO – Bajaj Auto – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 6-May-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Commodity inflation stabilizes at 3%, 150cc+ grows at 1.5x industry, Exports hit 220K/month, EV margins hold at double digits.
Outcome: Revenue +12-15% YoY, EBITDA margin 20-20.5%, PAT +15-18%; BACL and KTM contributions offset domestic slowdown.

TVSMOTOR – TVS Motor Company – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 13-May-26

TVS Motor’s FY26 shows 36% PAT growth, EPS rising ₹47→₹64, and strong auto leverage. Risks: negative FCF, rising short‑term borrowings, <1x current ratio, and NBFC‑driven expansion. Re‑rating hinges on sustaining >12% operating margins; Q4 dip to 11.3% is the key watchpoint.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations surged 27.2% YoY (₹44,089 Cr → ₹56,070 Cr), with automotive segment driving ₹11,385 Cr of the ₹12,980 Cr incremental revenue.
Q4FY26 revenue of ₹15,053 Cr grew 30.4% YoY, maintaining strong sequential momentum — Q3 to Q4 added ₹297 Cr despite a high base.
Financial services segment contributed ₹7,202 Cr (12.8% of total revenue), growing 8.4% YoY — steady but meaningfully slower than the core auto business.

Bottomline

PAT from continuing operations grew 35.6% YoY (₹2,350 Cr → ₹3,186 Cr); attributable PAT grew 35.0% (₹2,236 Cr → ₹3,018 Cr).
EPS expanded from ₹47.05 to ₹63.53 — a 35% uplift on an unchanged share count of 47.51 Cr shares, meaning all growth is organic earnings accretion.
Q4FY26 PAT of ₹820 Cr grew 19.4% YoY (vs ₹687 Cr), though sequentially weaker than Q3’s ₹891 Cr — partially explained by Q3 carrying an exceptional loss of ₹50 Cr.

Margins

Full-year operating margin expanded 70 bps YoY (10.8% → 11.5%); Q4FY26 operating margin of 11.3% lagged Q4FY25’s 12.1% — sequential margin compression evident.
Net profit margin improved 30 bps YoY (5.4% → 5.7%), modest given the revenue scale-up — input cost intensity remains high (materials + purchases = ~61.5% of revenue).
Finance costs rose 6.5% YoY (₹2,093 Cr → ₹2,230 Cr), largely NBFC-driven; excluding NBFC, interest coverage improved to 17.75x from 14.36x — a strong signal on automotive business quality.

Growth Trajectory

3-year compounding implied by FY26 scale (₹56,070 Cr revenue, ₹3,186 Cr PAT) suggests sustained double-digit volume and value growth across both segments.
Automotive segment EBIT grew 42.9% YoY (₹2,769 Cr → ₹3,958 Cr) — profit growth meaningfully outpacing revenue growth of 30.3%, confirming operating leverage at work.
Associate losses narrowed sharply (₹74 Cr → ₹41 Cr), suggesting international/JV businesses are on an improving trajectory.

BAJAJ-AUTO – Bajaj Auto – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 6-May-26

Bajaj Auto’s FY26 strong: core margins firm, exports accelerated, BACL high‑ROE engine. Consolidated PAT +47% flattered by associate reversals/BACL consolidation; standalone PAT +18% cleaner trend. Leverage rising, BACL credit quality key as AUM scales. Long‑term favorable, but FY27 hinges on NPA trajectories and sustained export momentum.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Consolidated revenue surged 23% YoY to ₹62,905 Cr in FY26 (vs ₹50,995 Cr), with Q4 FY26 alone jumping 41% YoY to ₹17,832 Cr — the strongest quarterly print of the year.
Export volumes drove outsized momentum: CV exports grew 49% YoY and two-wheeler exports 18%, pushing total export volumes to 22.5 lakh units in FY26.
BACL (financing subsidiary) tripled income to ₹3,248 Cr; its AUM near-doubled to ₹18,835 Cr, making it a material and fast-growing contributor to consolidated topline.

Bottomline

Consolidated PAT attributable to owners jumped 47% YoY to ₹10,744 Cr in FY26; Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹3,662 Cr was up 103% YoY — substantially aided by KTM associate profit reversal of ₹1,195 Cr vs a ₹335 Cr loss in Q4 FY25.
Standalone PAT (before exceptionals) grew a cleaner 18% YoY to ₹9,833 Cr, reflecting core automotive profitability without associate noise.
Tax efficiency improved: effective tax rate fell to ~24.2% in FY26 (Total Tax ₹3,377 Cr / PBT ₹13,952 Cr) vs ~28.4% in FY25, aided by deferred tax credits.

Margins

Standalone EBITDA margin expanded 30 bps YoY to 20.5% for FY26 and held firm at 20.8% in Q4 FY26 — disciplined cost management despite a ₹6,567 Cr jump in raw material costs.
Finance costs on a consolidated basis more than tripled YoY to ₹1,169 Cr (vs ₹389 Cr), reflecting BACL’s borrowing scale-up; ex-financial services, the increase is a more contained ₹260 Cr vs ₹68 Cr.
Other expenses rose 49% YoY to ₹5,113 Cr — faster than revenue growth of 23% — flagging cost inflation in distribution and overheads worth monitoring.

Growth Trajectory

Total volumes grew 10% YoY to 51.2 lakh units; revenue per unit economics improved sharply, with standalone revenue up 17% on just 10% volume growth — mix upgrade and pricing discipline at work.
BACL’s PAT surged from ₹58 Cr to ₹665 Cr in one year, contributing meaningfully to consolidated profit growth beyond the core automotive business.
Q4 FY26 sequential revenue growth of 10% (₹16,204 Cr → ₹17,832 Cr) confirms momentum is building, not plateauing.

EICHERMOT – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 10-Feb-26

Eicher Motors’ Base case projects 18–20% growth led by 350cc volumes and LATAM/APAC exports, with EBITDA margins at 24–25%. Bear case risks stagnation, tariffs, and inflation compressing margins to 22–23%. Bull case sees 650cc rebound, tariff relief, and EV adoption driving 25%+ growth.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: 450cc recovery to pre-GST levels, U.S. tariffs at 18%, Brazil CKD scales.

Revenue: 18–20% YoY growth driven by 350cc volume (60% of mix) and LATAM/APAC exports (10% CAGR).
Margins: EBITDA stabilizes at 24–25% on VA/VE (40bps tailwind) and selective pricing (1–1.5% annual hikes).
Capex: Cheyyar expansion on track; 2M capacity by FY28 with 80% utilization by FY29.

TVSMOTOR – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Jan-26

TVSMOTOR’s topline resilience (domestic premiumization + export recovery) and EBITDA expansion (scale/cost levers) are probable, but margin volatility hinges on EV execution and commodity pass-through; Norton’s cash burn remains the wild card for FCF and ROIC.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: EV supply normalizes (iQube/Orbiter hit 40K/month), GST tailwinds sustain (Q4 industry growth 15%), commodity stable (+0.2% QoQ).
Outcome: Revenue growth 12–14%; EBITDA margin 13–13.5% from scale + premiumization. Norton losses peak in FY27; export revenue grows 20% (Africa/LatAm).

BAJAJ-AUTO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 30-Jan-26

Bajaj Auto’s Base case sees contained inflation, steady domestic growth, and KTM recovery driving 15–18% revenue with 20–21% margins. Bear case risks commodity shocks, rupee appreciation, and demand slowdown, trimming margins to 19%. Bull case highlights premiumization, EV adoption, and KTM synergies, boosting revenue 20%+.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Trigger: Commodity inflation contained (50–60bps drag), 12–15% domestic growth sustains, export diversification offsets dislocations, KTM turnaround on track.
Outcome: Revenue +15–18%, EBITDA margin 20–21%, PAT +15%; EV contributes 30% of domestic revenue by FY27; BACL RoE sustains at 20%+.