NIFTYSML100 Archives - ChartAlert®

BEML – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-Feb-26

BEML’s topline hinges on Rail & Metro execution (15,000-car TAM) and Defense L1 conversions, but near-term capacity and FX risks cap upside; bottomline faces 16–18-month FX headwind and capex drag; margins remain range-bound (100 bps either side) absent supply chain breakthroughs or FX tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Bhopal Phase 1 on time; 50% success in metro/LHB tenders; Defense L1 conversions in H1 FY27.
Outcome: Revenue grows 15%; EBITDA margins flat YoY (FX recovery offsets provisioning). Net debt/EBITDA ~2.5x. Implication: EPS grows 8–12%; multiple holds at 16–18x.

NCC – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

NCC’s growth hinges on JJM payment normalization and mobilization of ₹28,000 crore projects, with 5–10% FY26 growth and 15–25% FY27 rebound. Margins stay resilient at 8.5–9.5%, but debt and stretched working capital pressure cash flow, making execution visibility critical.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: INR 2,000 cr JJM payments in Q4 (50% of receivables); INR 28,000 cr projects ramp up in 2H CY26.
Outcome: FY26 revenue at INR 20,500 cr (5% YoY growth); EBITDA margin at 8.5%. Net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x; unbilled revenue reduces to INR 6,000 cr. FY27 revenue +15–18% (INR 23,000–24,000 cr), margin expansion to 9% (operational leverage).

ADSL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

ADSL’s topline: 12–16% YoY revenue growth in FY27, sensitive to large contract wins and government spending; Bottomline: Adjusted PAT expansion hinges on EBITDA margin recovery to 11–12% and audit resolution; Margins: Structural Services shift and AI adoption offset cyclical Solution dilution, but execution risks persist.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Post-election billing catch-up and 1–2 ₹400–500 crore contract wins drive 14–16% revenue growth in FY27. EBITDA expands to 11–12% as Services mix improves and AI automation scales. Audit resolutions limit P&L volatility; stock rerates on execution visibility and mid-teens EPS growth.

BRIGADE – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

BRIGADE’s topline resilience hinges on Bengaluru approvals and Hyderabad/Chennai absorption; bottomline leverage delayed until premium projects scale in FY27, with margins compressed by legacy recognition and capex timing. Execution risk outweighs structural demand tailwinds in the near term.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Q4 launches partially delayed to Q1 FY27; Morgan Heights resolved by Mar 2026; GCC leasing stable (90%+ occupancy).
Outcome: Presales flat YoY in FY26, 15% growth in FY27; EBITDA margins recover to 18% by FY27 as premium projects scale. Net debt/equity stable at 0.23. Stock trades in line with sector.

ZENTEC – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

ZENTEC’s FY26–28 growth relies on procurement (60%) and exports (30%), with 30–35% CAGR base case but delay risks. PAT margins pressured by anti-drone (25% vs. 33% simulators), partly offset by R&D/ESG. Key watchpoints: simulator orders by Mar’26, EU pipeline by H2 FY26.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: (1) Simulator order materializes by March 2026; emergency procurement sustains. (2) Export revenue hits 20% of FY28 topline; EU orders offset US delays.
Outcome: Revenue reaches ₹3,500–4,000 Cr by FY28; margins stabilize at 32–34% PAT. Valuation: 30–35x FY28e EPS, supported by ESG tailwinds and R&D fund access.