BEML – Beml Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 29-May-26

BEML’s FY26 shows earnings compression — PAT down >50% on margin erosion, doubled provisions, and ballooning receivables despite revenue growth. CWIP tripling and Metro/Defence/Railways pipeline support thesis, but re‑rating hinges on expense normalization, receivables conversion, and provision reversal. Until OCF/FCF turn positive, execution visibility drives valuation.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

  • FY26 revenue grew 8.2% YoY (₹4,02,222L → ₹4,35,053L), modest but consistent; Q4FY26 at ₹1,79,417L surged 8.6% over Q4FY25, confirming H2-heavy execution pattern
  • Q3FY26 revenue of ₹1,08,327L was unusually weak — sequential collapse of ~40% — pointing to lumpy government order-driven recognition
  • Other income rose 24% YoY (₹2,373L → ₹2,944L), marginal contributor but directionally positive

Bottomline

  • FY26 PAT collapsed 51.7% YoY (₹29,252L → ₹14,136L) despite 8.2% revenue growth — a sharp earnings-quality deterioration
  • Q3FY26 posted a PAT loss of ₹2,238L; Q4FY26 recovered to ₹17,982L, but Q4FY25 PAT was ₹28,755L — Q4 profitability down 37.5% YoY
  • Effective tax rate distorted by large deferred tax credit of ₹6,965L in FY26 vs. ₹1,161L charge in FY25; underlying cash tax burden (₹12,725L) stayed elevated

Margins

  • FY26 EBITDA (PBT + Finance Costs + D&A): ₹19,956 + ₹4,539 + ₹8,348 = ₹32,843L on revenue of ₹4,35,053L → EBITDA margin ~7.5%, down from ~13.1% in FY25 (₹40,376 + ₹5,431 + ₹7,134 = ₹52,941L on ₹4,02,222L)
  • Net margin compressed to 3.2% (₹14,136L / ₹4,35,053L) vs. 7.3% in FY25 — a 410bps contraction
  • Other expenses surged 38.8% YoY (₹67,558L → ₹93,787L) on only 8.2% revenue growth — the single largest margin erosion driver

Growth Trajectory

  • Revenue CAGR is low-single-digit; at current trajectory BEML is not a high-growth compounder but an order-execution vehicle dependent on government capex cycles
  • Provisions rose sharply: current provisions jumped from ₹25,870L to ₹53,259L (+105.9%), signalling warranty, contractual, or contingent liability build-up
  • Non-current liabilities grew 8.4% (₹1,11,816L → ₹1,21,178L) while equity grew just 1.6% — leverage creeping up structurally
Continue reading “BEML – Beml Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 29-May-26”

BEML – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-Feb-26

BEML’s topline hinges on Rail & Metro execution (15,000-car TAM) and Defense L1 conversions, but near-term capacity and FX risks cap upside; bottomline faces 16–18-month FX headwind and capex drag; margins remain range-bound (100 bps either side) absent supply chain breakthroughs or FX tailwinds.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

  • Key Variables: Bhopal Phase 1 on time; 50% success in metro/LHB tenders; Defense L1 conversions in H1 FY27.
  • Outcome: Revenue grows 15%; EBITDA margins flat YoY (FX recovery offsets provisioning). Net debt/EBITDA ~2.5x. Implication: EPS grows 8–12%; multiple holds at 16–18x.
Continue reading “BEML – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-Feb-26”