Refineries & Marketing Archives

RELIANCE – Reliance Industries – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

Reliance FY26 shows Digital/Retail scaling into quality earnings, O2C margin headwinds, FCF nearly doubled, leverage steady at 0.41x. Yet opacity in Other Liabilities, slower receivables, and rising finance costs warrant scrutiny before the next energy‑linked capex cycle intensifies.

2–3 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from Operations crossed ₹10.75L Cr in FY26 (+9.7% YoY vs ₹9.80L Cr), with Q4FY26 posting the strongest quarterly revenue at ₹2.99L Cr — a sequential surge of +10.8% driven by an O2C volume spike and Retail expansion.
Digital Services (Jio) and Retail together contributed ~51% of gross segment revenue in FY26, signalling a structural pivot away from O2C dominance toward consumer-facing businesses.
O2C remains the largest segment at ₹6.62L Cr (FY26), but its revenue share in gross segment revenue slipped to ~50% from ~53% in FY25, reflecting faster growth in Retail (+12.1%) and Digital (+14.3%).

Bottomline

Consolidated PAT (post-associates) grew 17.8% YoY to ₹95,754 Cr in FY26; attributable net profit to owners expanded 16.0% YoY to ₹80,775 Cr, validating earnings accretion at the parent level.
Q4FY26 PAT at ₹20,589 Cr came in weaker both QoQ (−7.6% vs ₹22,290 Cr in Q3FY26) and YoY (−8.9% vs ₹22,611 Cr in Q4FY25), largely due to a deferred tax charge spike (₹5,735 Cr vs ₹3,763 Cr in Q4FY25) that compressed reported profits disproportionately.
Basic EPS for FY26 stood at ₹59.69 vs ₹51.47 in FY25 — a 16% expansion — confirming earnings dilution has been well-managed despite increased NCI profit share.

Margins

FY26 operating margin (per reported ratio) contracted to 10.3% vs 10.5% in FY25; Q4FY26 margin compressed sharply to 9.0% vs 10.7% in Q3FY26, flagging quarterly cost pressure — particularly in O2C where EBITDA fell to ₹14,520 Cr from ₹16,507 Cr QoQ.
Digital Services EBITDA margin is structurally superior: segment EBITDA of ₹76,560 Cr on revenue of ₹1,76,164 Cr implies ~43.5% EBITDA margin in FY26 vs ~42.2% in FY25 — the only segment with material YoY margin expansion.
Net Profit Margin (FY26) improved to 8.1% from 7.6% in FY25 despite operating margin compression, aided by elevated Other Income (₹28,962 Cr vs ₹17,978 Cr YoY — partially dividend income of ₹9,100 Cr).

Growth Trajectory

Total Segment EBITDA grew 11.0% YoY to ₹1,94,047 Cr in FY26, with Digital (+17.8%) and Retail (+7.7%) outpacing O2C (+10.1%), supporting a durable multi-engine earnings architecture.
FY26 Revenue CAGR implied over FY25 base: +9.7%; PAT CAGR: +18.4% — PAT growing nearly 2x the revenue pace signals operating leverage and cost discipline at the group level.
Oil & Gas segment revenue declined 5.4% YoY (₹23,861 Cr vs ₹25,211 Cr) and EBITDA fell 10.1% — a structural drag as KG-D6 production matures without visible near-term volume catalyst.

RELIANCE – Reliance Industries – Q4 FY26 Earnings Presentation – 24-Apr-26

Topline resilience (consumer businesses offsetting O2C cyclicality) and margin divergence (Jio/Retail expanding, O2C compressed) hinge on ME conflict resolution and domestic demand sustainability; PAT growth and cash flows are leveraged to energy volatility and FX movements, with structural strengths in ethane cracking and 5G providing partial offsets.

1–2 minutes

Also see: RELIANCE – Reliance Industries – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: ME conflict de-escalates (crude $80–100/bbl), SAED phased out, Rupee stabilizes at ₹85/$, and 5G monetization tracks plan.
Outcome: O2C EBITDA grows 5–8% on normalized fuel cracks; Retail/FMCG scales with 10–12% revenue growth. Jio sustains 15–18% EBITDA growth. Consolidated PAT grows 10–12%, net debt/EBITDA at 0.6–0.7x. Capex focused on consumer businesses (Jio, Retail) and ethane pipeline expansion.

RELIANCE – Q3 FY26 Earnings Presentation – 16-Jan-26

Market Scenarios at a Glance — Base case: Brent $60–70/bbl, 5G ARPU flat, FMCG +15–20%, EBITDA +5–7%, margins stable. Bear case: Brent <$50, ARPU drops, margins shrink, debt rises. Bull case: Brent >$75, ARPU +10%, EBITDA +20%+, margins peak, debt falls. New Energy hinges on oil trends.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Brent $60–70/bbl, 5G ARPU flat, FMCG revenue grows 15–20%.
Outcome: EBITDA growth 5–7%, Jio margins 51–52%, Retail margins 7.5–8%. Net debt/EBITDA stable at 0.55x; EPS growth 5–10%. New Energy projects delayed but on track.