UNITEDSPR’s topline resilience in RoI and premium segments masks structural risks in Maharashtra and input cost pressures; FY26 guidance hinges on execution in pocket packs, litigation outcomes, and FTA timing, with gross margins (~47%) and EBITDA expansion (<100 bps) likely capped without favorable resolution of state-specific headwinds.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Maharashtra stabilizes with pocket pack traction and litigation progress by H2 FY26, limiting volume decline to high single-digits. FTA approved in Q1 FY27, delivering ~50 bps gross margin tailwind. A&P normalizes to 10%; premium segment growth offsets Popular weakness. Topline: +10–12%; EBITDA margin: flat to +50 bps; EPS growth: mid-teens.
Continue reading “UNITDSPR – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Jan-26”Shriram Finance’s topline growth (14–16% YoY) hinges on rural/LCV demand and infra capex; bottomline (18–20% EPS growth) depends on NIM stability (8.5–8.7%) and credit cost containment (<1.7%), with execution risks skewed to MSME and customer retention strategies.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Maruti Suzuki’s Base case sees 5–7% industry growth, stable commodity costs, and EVs at 5% sales by FY27, driving 8–10% EPS growth. Bear case slows to 3% growth with margin compression and delayed EV rollout. Bull case accelerates to 10%+ growth, margins above 9%, and strong EV adoption.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Industry growth stabilizes at 5–7%, with Maruti at +200 bps; (2) Commodity costs flat YoY; (3) EV contributes 5% of sales by FY27.
Outcome: EBIT margin 7.8–8.3% (operating leverage offsets 50 bps commodity drag). Exports grow 10–12%, supported by VICTORIS. EPS growth 8–10%, in line with historical averages. Capex remains INR 10K–12K crore/year.