ABB Outlook: Revenue growth of 8–12% hinges on private capex and exports, with downside if macro weakens. Structural cost pressures (QCO, wages) offset by volume leverage; PBT margin floor 15–16%, ceiling 18% in bull case. Margins stay range-bound unless premiumization or FX/commodity relief emerges.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: Private capex recovers in 2H2026 (government projects execute), QCO costs normalize by Q3, data center/hyperscale demand sustains (10–12% backlog).
Outcome: Revenue grows 8–10% YoY, PBT margin stabilizes at 16–17% (Labour Code offset by volume), EPS grows 10–12%. FCF improves (backlog conversion), dividend grows 5–7%. Stock trades as “secular growth + cyclical optionality”.
CGPOWER’s topline growth (15–20% YoY) is underpinned by structural power demand and export diversification, but margin expansion hinges on Industrials recovery and semiconductor execution, with Power Systems as the stable anchor.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)