LODHA – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 29-Jan-26

LODHA’s topline resilience (20–25% YoY growth) hinges on execution catch-up and land monetization; bottomline leverage (EPS +15–20%) tied to margin discipline and data center scalability; structural premiumization limits volume upside but protects margins.

1–2 minutes


3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

  • Key Variables: Q4 construction catch-up; INR 20Bn land sales; data center leasing progresses.
  • Outcome: OCF at INR 70Bn; net debt stable at 0.28x; EBITDA margin 32%. Topline +20% YoY; EPS +15% on operational leverage.
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DLF – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 19-Jan-26

DLF’s topline resilient (FY26 guidance intact; FY27 pipeline robust), margins protected by pricing power and cost discipline, but execution risks (GRAP, RERA, contractors) cap near-term upside; FCF growth hinges on RERA unlock and land monetization timing.

1–2 minutes


3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

  • Key Variables: GRAP delays contained (45 days), NRI demand stable, RERA unlock begins FY27.
  • Outcome: FY26 sales at guidance mid-point (Rs. 21,000 crore); FY27 launches on track (Arbour 2, Westpark, Panchkula). Rental income grows 17% YoY (Rs. 7,400 crore). Dividend payout ratio 75–80% sustained. Stock trades at 1.2–1.3x P/B.
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