FY27 Outlook: Weak North American spend and underperforming AI productivity cap revenue growth below 3% YoY, with margins stuck at 24–25%. EPS may drop 5–8%. Bull case (20% chance): Mega BFSI/Healthcare deals and Agentic AI adoption could drive 10%+ revenue growth, 27%+ margins, and a valuation premium for TCS.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables:(1) North America recovers to 4–6% YoY growth; (2) AI revenue sustains 15%+ QoQ growth. Outcome:FY27 revenue grows 6–8% YoY (Int’l: 7–9%, India: 5–7%). Margins expand to 25.5–26.5% via productivity gains + AI scaling. EPS grows 8–10% on dividend continuity. Data center revenue kicks in by late FY28, adding 2–3% to long-term growth.
