POLYCAB’s Topline: 30–40% YoY revenue growth in FY26, led by domestic W&C (structural) and FMEG (cyclical); bottomline: 35–45% PAT growth if commodity lag resolves; margins: 12–14% EBITDA achievable by FY27, but hinges on copper trajectory and export recovery.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Copper stabilizes (±5% QoQ), pass-through completes by Q1 FY27. W&C volume grows 20% YoY (vs. 40% Q3), with 100bps margin recovery. FMEG EBITDA hits 7%. Outcome: FY26 revenue +35% YoY, EBITDA margin 13%. Valuation: Multiple holds at 23–25x PE.
Continue reading “POLYCAB – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 16-Jan-26”UNIONBANK’s loan growth of 13–15% looks sustainable, but weak deposit franchise and CASA mix remain drags. EPS growth of 12–15% is base case yet vulnerable to shocks. Margins hinge on a 2.40–2.45% NIM floor, at risk if rate cuts accelerate or deposit costs rise.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Deposit growth 8–10% YoY (CASA + ecosystem banking), (2) SMA2 stable; ECL provisioning ₹4,300 crore.
Outcome: NIM 2.70–2.80% (treasury optimization offsets rate cuts); credit cost 20–30bps. EPS grows 5–8% YoY; RoE 13–14% (ECL absorbable via retained earnings).
FY’27 Outlook: Base case sees 0–2% growth, 17–17.3% margins, EPS flat–5%, $1B buybacks. Bear case warns 2–4% decline, margins 16.8–17%, EPS –10–15%. Bull case targets 4–6% growth, 17.5–18% margins, EPS +10–12%. Triggers: macro stability, AI spend, client budgets.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)