February 18, 2026 - ChartAlert®

AURIONPRO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

AURIONPRO’s topline growth (22–30% YoY) is underpinned by lumpy but high-margin Transit/data center deals and banking software stickiness, while bottom-line expansion (19–25% EBITDA margins) hinges on AI-led productivity gains and execution of ₹1,650 crore order book—both contingent on Q4 project delivery and regulatory tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: AI investments yield modest near-term ROI (AurionAi contributes 5–10% of incremental revenue; grants cover 20–30% of R&D), and Q4 execution meets targets (60% EBITDA conversion, DSO at 110 days).
Outcome: Revenue grows at 22–25% YoY, with EBITDA margins stable at 19–21%. Operating cash flow turns positive (~₹100–120 crore), supporting continued acquisitions. Order book expands to ₹1,800–2,000 crore on data center/Transit wins. Implication: Trading range of 18–22x FY27e P/E, with premium for AI optionality offset by execution risks.

KAYNES – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

KAYNES’ topline hinges on project execution timing (Kavach, aerospace) and ODM adoption; bottomline sensitive to working capital normalization and subsidy-driven capex phasing; margins require ODM scale-up to sustain expansion beyond 16%. FY28 $1 billion target viable but contingent on structural ODM/OSAT execution.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Kavach executes in Q4; OSAT/PCB Phase 1 completes by FY27.
Outcome: FY26 revenue at INR 4,000 crore; EBITDA margin at 16% on throughput leverage. OCF turns positive in FY27 as receivables normalize. OSAT contributes INR 1,000 crore by FY28, PCB adds INR 800 crore; EMS grows at 25% CAGR. $1 billion FY28 revenue achieved, but margin expansion lags due to ODM ramp-up.

RVNL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

RVNL’s topline growth (10% CAGR) hinges on execution of INR 87,000 crore order book, but bottomline (7% EBITDA) and margins face structural pressure from bidding mix; FY26 profit stagnation likely, with FY27 recovery contingent on cost discipline and railway capex visibility.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) INR 40,000 crore railway works executed on time, (2) Bidding revenue scales to INR 10,000–12,000 crore/annum, (3) EBITDA margins stabilize at 7%.
Outcome: 10% topline growth, flat-to-low-single-digit profit growth in FY26; 12–15% profit growth in FY27 as margins recover. Stock trades at 15–18x P/E, supported by infrastructure capex tailwinds.

PIDILITIND – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 4-Feb-26

Pidilite’s revenue growth of 9–11% CAGR (base) driven by domestic resilience and adhesive penetration, with ±3% export variance. PAT CAGR at 12–15% (base) on 24–25% margins; bull case hinges on EU trade deal, bear case on shocks. EBITDA corridor: 20–24%.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) U.S. tariffs resolved by Q1 FY27 (exports flat YoY); (2) Tile adhesive penetration sustains 15–18% CAGR; (3) A&SP delivers +50 bps UVG uplift.
Outcome: Revenue growth 9–11%, EBITDA margin 24–25% (gross margin tailwinds offset by A&SP). Dr. Fixit/Roff outperform; pioneering segments contribute <5% revenue. Valuation supports 20–22x PE, in line with historical premium.

TATASTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

Tata Steel’s topline growth hinges on India volume ramp (6M+ tons) and EU price recovery (€700/t), while bottomline faces coking coal/EAF execution risks; margins likely 22–26% in base case but vulnerable to policy delays and input inflation.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

UK quotas revised by Q3 2026 → EBITDA turns positive (£50M).
CBAM pass-through successful → Netherlands EBITDA at €250M.
India realisations up ₹2,300/t → EBITDA margin at 22–24%.
Implication: Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x; FCF supports ₹15,000 crore capex.

EICHERMOT – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 10-Feb-26

Eicher Motors’ Base case projects 18–20% growth led by 350cc volumes and LATAM/APAC exports, with EBITDA margins at 24–25%. Bear case risks stagnation, tariffs, and inflation compressing margins to 22–23%. Bull case sees 650cc rebound, tariff relief, and EV adoption driving 25%+ growth.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: 450cc recovery to pre-GST levels, U.S. tariffs at 18%, Brazil CKD scales.

Revenue: 18–20% YoY growth driven by 350cc volume (60% of mix) and LATAM/APAC exports (10% CAGR).
Margins: EBITDA stabilizes at 24–25% on VA/VE (40bps tailwind) and selective pricing (1–1.5% annual hikes).
Capex: Cheyyar expansion on track; 2M capacity by FY28 with 80% utilization by FY29.