February 2026 - Page 11 of 12

LAURUSLABS – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

LAURUSLABS: ARV-led generics and CDMO drive 15–25% growth, but biotech drag limits upside. EBITDA margins (26–28%) hinge on utilization and FX gains; ROCE recovery (18.5%→20–22%) rests on asset turnover. Gross margin at 60% needs ARV/CDMO mix, with risk of 55% under price pressure.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: CDMO grows 20% YoY (FY27), ARV stabilizes at ₹2,600 crore, peptide/ADC revenues commence in FY28 (~₹200–300 crore).
Outcome: Revenue CAGR of 18–22% (FY26–28), EBITDA margins at 26–28%, ROCE improves to 20–22%. CAPEX absorption drives asset turnover to 1.1x by FY28; net debt/EBITDA at 1.0–1.2x.

GODREJCP – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

Godrej Consumer expects 6–9% revenue growth, led by laundry liquids, incense, and EDP, while soaps and HI remain cyclical. EPS may rise 12–16% with 22–24% EBITDA margins, hinging on oil and Africa FX. Gross margins face pressure, though HI volatility narrows.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Oil stable (±5%) + Indonesia/FY27 recovery + Spic/pet food gradual scale.

Topline: India volume 6–7%, GAUM 8–10% INR growth. Laundry liquids/incense sticks drive 30% of incremental revenue.
Bottomline: EBITDA margin 22–24%, EPS growth 12–14%. Structural cost savings (media, supply chain) persist.
Margins: Gross margin stable; HI volatility contained (100–110 index range).

ULTRACEMCO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 24-Jan-26

Ultratech Cement’s revenue growth faces execution risks, capping upside at 6–7%. EBITDA/ton expansion to INR1,000–1,100 hinges on pricing power, but input inflation and legal overhangs threaten 18–19% margins. Base case: 20%+ margins by FY27; bear case: compression to 18–19%.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Infrastructure projects execute as planned, driving 9–10% demand growth; (2) South India pricing stabilizes with institutional demand, supporting INR6–8/ton price hikes.
Outcome: Revenue grows at 9–10%, EBITDA/ton reaches INR1,000–1,100 by FY27, and net debt/EBITDA improves to 0.8–0.9x. Clinker conversion and lead distance targets met, delivering INR100/ton cost savings. Bottomline: EPS grows 12–15% annually, in line with consensus.

KOTAKBANK – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 24-Jan-26

Kotak Bank’s Base case sees NIMs steady at 4.5–4.6% with credit costs normalizing to 50–60bps and ROE at 12–13%. Bear case risks compression to 4.3–4.4% and higher costs. Bull case offers expansion above 4.7%, stronger ROE, and EPS upside.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Retail CV delinquencies plateau (slippages <1.2%); (2) Term deposit repricing completes by Q1 FY27.
Outcome: Credit costs normalize to 50–60bps by FY27; NIM stabilizes at 4.5–4.6% with CRR benefits. Unsecured portfolio grows 15–20% YoY, lifting ROE to 12–13%. Cost-to-income ratio improves to 46–47% on automation. EPS growth: 6–9% YoY.

COFORGE – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

COFORGE targets 25%+ FY27 growth via diversification and cross-sell, with EBIT margin expansion to 15.5%+ hinging on AI scalability and cost discipline. Outcome-based pricing supports upside, but FX, subcontractor costs, and M&A integration risks temper margin gains.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Encora closes by Q1 FY27; Sabre cross-sell delivers $50M incremental revenue; Healthcare/Hi-Tech grow 50%+ YoY; hedge losses normalize.
Outcome: Revenue grows 25% YoY (FY27); EBIT margin expands to 15.5% on AI-driven productivity and Cigniti accretion. FCF/PAT sustains at 100%+. Implication: EPS outperforms; margin expansion justifies premium valuation.

KEC – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 30-Jan-26

KEC’s topline resilience (T&D/SAE-driven) contrasts with margin/cash flow pressures (legacy projects, labor, water). FY28 9–10% EBITDA hinge on execution cleanup; near-term guidance downgrades reflect structural delays, not cyclical weakness. Order book quality high, but conversion risks persist.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Water project collections normalize (INR 800 crore FY26 revenue), metro closures accelerate in H2 FY26, and INR 30,000 crore order intake in FY27 (12% success rate).
Outcome: Revenue growth 12–14%, EBITDA margins 7.5–8%, and net debt at INR 5,500 crore. T&D drives 60% of growth; SAE/Cables offset Civil weakness.

KEI – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-Jan-26

KEI’s topline hinges on Sanand execution (INR6,000 crore swing) and export scalability (20% mix), while margins depend on copper pass-through (10–15% pricing power) and EHV mix (25% share)—11% EBITDA achievable if risks are managed, but downside skews to execution delays and commodity cycles.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Sanand on track + copper stable (LME $9,000) + export 20%.

Topline: INR11,000 crore (18% growth) with Sanand contributing INR2,700 crore.
EBITDA Margin: 11.2% (export mix + EHV ramp).
Implication: 20% CAGR validated; ROCE 15%+ by FY29.

OBEROIRLTY – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 20-Jan-26

OBEROIRLTY’s FY26 topline growth hinges on launch execution (50% probability of partial slippage), while FY27’s “big year” thesis requires flawless RERA/commencement timelines; margins are structurally supported by premium pricing but vulnerable to absorption risks in Goregaon/Borivali, and FCF inflection is deferred to FY27 pending land monetization.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) 50% of Q4 FY26 launches execute (Goregaon, Borivali, but NCR slips); (2) Premium demand holds (Rs. 50,000+/sq. ft. sales at 70% of inventory); (3) Sky City leasing hits 80% by FY26-end.
Outcome: Revenue growth 15–20% YoY in FY27 (spillover effect), margins stable (±50 bps) on pricing power; FCF breakeven by H2 FY27 as land spends monetize. Thane’s mixed-use projects gain traction, adding Rs. 1,500 crore to pipeline.

ADANIGREEN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

ADANIGREEN’s topline growth hinges on grid evacuation timing and merchant price recovery, while bottomline resilience depends on storage arbitrage execution and commodity cost containment; margins remain structurally high (90%+) but face cyclical pressure from wind volatility and merchant pricing.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Grid augmentation completes by March 2026 (2–3 GW), and wind speeds normalize in H1 FY27. Merchant realizations recover to ₹2.50–3.00/unit (solar) on peak demand. Battery storage (3.5 GWh) operationalizes as planned, enabling 10–15% revenue uplift from arbitrage. EBITDA margin sustains at 90%+, with ₹16,000 crore power supply EBITDA achieved by FY26 end. Debt/EBITDA improves to 5x by FY27.

DRREDDY – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Jan-26

Dr.Reddy’s topline growth hinges on Semaglutide/Abatacept execution and EM resilience, while margins face structural pressure from Lenalidomide exit, FX, and biosimilar delays; base case implies 6–8% revenue growth with 24–26% EBITDA, but bear-case risks skew asymmetric.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Semaglutide launches in Canada (May 2026, $50/unit) and India (March 2026, $30/unit), contributing $150–200M revenue. Abatacept EU approval (July 2027) and US Rituximab re-inspection (H1CY27) proceed as guided. EM grows 20% YoY; India sustains 15%+ organic growth. EBITDA margins recover to 24–26% on cost controls. Implication: 6–8% revenue growth; 10–12% EPS growth.