February 2026 - Page 9 of 12

DIXON – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 29-Jan-26

DIXON’s growth depends on smartphone recovery (60–65M units) and JV revenue (₹1,000+ cr by FY27). Margins hinge on PLI 2.0 and integration. Base case: 10–12% revenue growth, 20–30 bps EBITDA gain; bear case: 10–15% EPS hit if memory/Vivo delays persist.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Memory prices stabilize by Q2 FY27; Vivo JV approval in Q1 FY27 (20M units from H2); PLI 2.0 extended with reduced incentives.
Outcome: Smartphone volumes at 60–65M units; EBITDA margins at 3.0–3.3% (backward integration offsets PLI reduction). Component JVs contribute INR800–1,000 cr revenue (H2 FY27). Exports grow 20% YoY (INR6,500–7,000 cr).
Implication: 10–12% topline growth; EBITDA margins expand 20–30 bps YoY; EPS growth 15–20%.

TVSMOTOR – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Jan-26

TVSMOTOR’s topline resilience (domestic premiumization + export recovery) and EBITDA expansion (scale/cost levers) are probable, but margin volatility hinges on EV execution and commodity pass-through; Norton’s cash burn remains the wild card for FCF and ROIC.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: EV supply normalizes (iQube/Orbiter hit 40K/month), GST tailwinds sustain (Q4 industry growth 15%), commodity stable (+0.2% QoQ).
Outcome: Revenue growth 12–14%; EBITDA margin 13–13.5% from scale + premiumization. Norton losses peak in FY27; export revenue grows 20% (Africa/LatAm).

SUNPHARMA – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 31-Jan-26

Sun Pharma’s topline growth is milestone-dependent and exposed to US generics structural decline, while bottom-line resilience hinges on tax rate stabilization and R&D productivity; margins face near-term pressure from launch costs but could inflect in FY28 if innovative scales and OAI risks abate—model 31–33% EBITDA as the new range.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: (1) OAI resolutions by late FY27, enabling 2–3 major ANDA launches; (2) Unloxcyt/LEQSELVI hit $200M run rate by FY28.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% (ex-FX), with India/Semaglutide contributing 40% of incremental sales. EBITDA margins stabilize at 31–32%; EPS grows 6–8% on tax headwinds. Implication: In-line with consensus; 22–24x PE sustained.

LT (L&T) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Jan-26

L&T’s FY27 outcomes diverge across scenarios. Revenue growth spans 10–17%, with P&M margins between 7.5–9.0% and NWC/Revenue ranging 7–13%. EPS shifts from –8% to +20% YoY, shaped by Middle East orders, domestic capex trends, and new ventures in semiconductors and electrolyzers.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Middle East orders (TenneT packages 3–4) materialize in H1FY27; (2) Domestic private sector (real estate, thermal power) offsets public sector slowdown.
Outcome: Revenue growth at 14–15%; P&M margins recover to 8.3–8.5% in H2FY27. NWC/Revenue sustains at 9–10%. EPS grows 10–12% YoY, supported by Realty presales and data center ramp-up.

BLUESTARCO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 30-Jan-26

BLUESTARCO’s topline growth hinges on summer demand and EMP order revival, while bottomline resilience depends on price hike execution and cost controls; margins face structural pressure from wage codes and commodity volatility, but selective capital allocation and B2B diversification provide downside buffers.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Average summer, EMP order book stabilizes (8–10% CAGR), price hikes partially successful (5–7% net realization).
Outcome: Revenue grows 8–10% YoY in FY27; UCP margins hold at 8.5%, EMP margins at 6.5–7%. EPS grows 5–8% YoY, supported by cost controls and selective project execution. ROCE remains 25%+. Exports contribute 5–7% of revenue by FY29, trailing the 15% target.

VOLTAS – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 29-Jan-26

VOLTAS’ topline resilience hinges on RAC seasonality and Volbek scale-up, while bottomline recovery depends on commodity pass-through and project execution; margins face structural pressure unless cost optimization outpaces input inflation.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Normal summer demand, commodity prices stabilize, BEE price hikes absorbed (elasticity <5%), data center orders materialize.
Outcome: RAC revenue grows 3–5% YoY; market share holds at 17–18%. Voltbek break-even by Q4 FY27 (8–10% market share). Project revenue flattish but margins improve to 9–10% on MEP mix. EPS stable; margins 7–8%.

GVT&D – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 28-Jan-26

GE Vernova T&D India’s structural tailwinds (500GW renewables, TBCB adoption) and disciplined execution support 18–22% topline growth and 25–27% EBITDA, but HVDC timing, China policy, and export volatility introduce 10–15% downside risk to revenue and 100–200bps margin compression in adverse scenarios.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Adani Khavda booked in 1H FY27, Barmer-South Kalamb finalized by Q2 FY27, and TBCB pipeline supports 18–22% revenue growth. EBITDA sustains at 25–27% on execution leverage and pricing discipline. Export contributes 20–25% of revenue. Implication: In-line with guidance; cash flow funds capex.

VEDL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 29-Jan-26

VEDL’s topline resilience (volume-led) and margin expansion (cost leadership) are structurally supported, but execution risks (project delays, commodity volatility) and balance sheet leverage (VRL maturities) introduce asymmetric downside—monitor ASP commissioning and BALCO ramp-up as near-term catalysts.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: ASP commissioning (Q1 FY27), aluminum LME at $2,700/ton, and BALCO ramp-up on schedule.
Outcome: EBITDA hits $6.1–6.3B; aluminum/power drive 40%+ margins. Deleveraging accelerates (0.9x net debt/EBITDA); 10–12GW power expansion secures PPAs. Zinc International costs stabilize at $1,150/ton; HZL OFS proceeds (₹3,000 crore) reduce VRL debt by $300M.

CIPLA – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

Cipla’s topline resilience hinges on US pipeline execution (respiratory/peptides) and India chronic therapy growth, while margins face near-term pressure from R&D lumpiness and Lanreotide disruption; FY27 EBITDA recovery to 21%+ requires flawless launch sequencing and cost normalization.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Lanreotide resumes in H1 FY27; two respiratory launches in H1 FY27 (one sole generic).
Generic Victoza and one peptide launch in FY27; Yurpeak traction sustains (~₹150 crore/month).
Result: US revenue stabilizes at $130–150M/quarter; EBITDA margin recovers to 20–21%; FY27 guidance maintained at 21%.

BAJAJ-AUTO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 30-Jan-26

Bajaj Auto’s Base case sees contained inflation, steady domestic growth, and KTM recovery driving 15–18% revenue with 20–21% margins. Bear case risks commodity shocks, rupee appreciation, and demand slowdown, trimming margins to 19%. Bull case highlights premiumization, EV adoption, and KTM synergies, boosting revenue 20%+.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Trigger: Commodity inflation contained (50–60bps drag), 12–15% domestic growth sustains, export diversification offsets dislocations, KTM turnaround on track.
Outcome: Revenue +15–18%, EBITDA margin 20–21%, PAT +15%; EV contributes 30% of domestic revenue by FY27; BACL RoE sustains at 20%+.