HYUNDAI’s topline growth (6–8%) and EBITDA margins (11–12%) hinge on SUV demand resilience, export diversification, and cost absorption at Pune/Chennai plants; commodity inflation and regulatory execution remain key swing factors.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
TMCV Outlook: Double-digit topline growth in H1 FY27, but export/MENA scalability and GST clarity remain pivotal. EBITDA margins face 50–100 bps commodity drag; resilience hinges on pricing power and cost discipline. Structural tailwinds (replacement demand, EV buses) may sustain 12%+ margins—Q4 is key.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
TVSMOTOR’s topline resilience (domestic premiumization + export recovery) and EBITDA expansion (scale/cost levers) are probable, but margin volatility hinges on EV execution and commodity pass-through; Norton’s cash burn remains the wild card for FCF and ROIC.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Bajaj Auto’s Base case sees contained inflation, steady domestic growth, and KTM recovery driving 15–18% revenue with 20–21% margins. Bear case risks commodity shocks, rupee appreciation, and demand slowdown, trimming margins to 19%. Bull case highlights premiumization, EV adoption, and KTM synergies, boosting revenue 20%+.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Maruti Suzuki’s Base case sees 5–7% industry growth, stable commodity costs, and EVs at 5% sales by FY27, driving 8–10% EPS growth. Bear case slows to 3% growth with margin compression and delayed EV rollout. Bull case accelerates to 10%+ growth, margins above 9%, and strong EV adoption.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Industry growth stabilizes at 5–7%, with Maruti at +200 bps; (2) Commodity costs flat YoY; (3) EV contributes 5% of sales by FY27.
Outcome: EBIT margin 7.8–8.3% (operating leverage offsets 50 bps commodity drag). Exports grow 10–12%, supported by VICTORIS. EPS growth 8–10%, in line with historical averages. Capex remains INR 10K–12K crore/year.