KEI’s topline hinges on Sanand execution (INR6,000 crore swing) and export scalability (20% mix), while margins depend on copper pass-through (10–15% pricing power) and EHV mix (25% share)—11% EBITDA achievable if risks are managed, but downside skews to execution delays and commodity cycles.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: Sanand on track + copper stable (LME $9,000) + export 20%.
POLYCAB’s Topline: 30–40% YoY revenue growth in FY26, led by domestic W&C (structural) and FMEG (cyclical); bottomline: 35–45% PAT growth if commodity lag resolves; margins: 12–14% EBITDA achievable by FY27, but hinges on copper trajectory and export recovery.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Copper stabilizes (±5% QoQ), pass-through completes by Q1 FY27. W&C volume grows 20% YoY (vs. 40% Q3), with 100bps margin recovery. FMEG EBITDA hits 7%. Outcome: FY26 revenue +35% YoY, EBITDA margin 13%. Valuation: Multiple holds at 23–25x PE.
Continue reading “POLYCAB – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 16-Jan-26”