Ultratech Cement’s revenue growth faces execution risks, capping upside at 6–7%. EBITDA/ton expansion to INR1,000–1,100 hinges on pricing power, but input inflation and legal overhangs threaten 18–19% margins. Base case: 20%+ margins by FY27; bear case: compression to 18–19%.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Infrastructure projects execute as planned, driving 9–10% demand growth; (2) South India pricing stabilizes with institutional demand, supporting INR6–8/ton price hikes.
Outcome: Revenue grows at 9–10%, EBITDA/ton reaches INR1,000–1,100 by FY27, and net debt/EBITDA improves to 0.8–0.9x. Clinker conversion and lead distance targets met, delivering INR100/ton cost savings. Bottomline: EPS grows 12–15% annually, in line with consensus.
