Private Sector Bank Archives - Page 2 of 2

ICICIBANK – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 17-Jan-26

ICICIBANK’s outlook splits into Base Case with NIM steady at 3.0–4.3% and ROE 15–21%; Bear Case with margin compression to 2.8–4.0% and ROE 13–14%; Bull Case with NIM expansion above 3.1–4.4% and ROE 17–22%.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) PSL portfolio conformity achieved by H1-2027, limiting provisions to ₹12.83B; (2) Retail deposit repricing offsets 50% of repo cut impacts. Outcome: PBT grows 3–5% YoY (adjusted for provisions), with NIM stable at 4.20–4.30%. Loan growth sustains at 11–12% YoY, led by business banking. RoE holds at 15–16%. Signal: Credit card/personal loan growth recovers to 8–10% YoY by H2-2027.

HDFCBANK – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 17-Jan-26

HDFC Bank’s Base case projects loan growth at 14–16% with NIMs steady near 3.3–3.4% and EPS rising 12–15%. Bear case risks slower growth, NIM contraction to ~3.2%, and higher credit costs. Bull case offers expansion, NIMs above 3.5%, and EPS growth near 20%.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Deposit growth at 14–15%, LDR glides to 90% by FY27; no material provision surprises.

Outcome: Loan growth at 14–16%; NIMs stabilize at 3.3–3.4% as cost of funds declines. Credit costs at 35–40 bps. EPS grows 12–15%, RoA flat at ~1.9–2.0%.
Trigger: Granular deposit mobilization succeeds; branch scaling delivers 3x productivity. PSU pricing normalizes.