SOBHA’s topline growth hinges on launch execution and Bangalore/NCR demand resilience; margins leverage completion pace but face near-term OC volatility. Model 15–18% sales growth with 18–19% EBITDA margins as base, stress-testing for approval delays and demand softness.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (60% Probability)
Q4 launches proceed as planned (3–4 projects), with Gurgaon/Noida RERA approvals by early Feb 2026. INR8,500 crore sales target achieved; Q4 EBITDA margins recover to 12–14% on INR500 crore revenue catch-up. Bangalore/NCR contribute 80% of sales, with Mumbai/Hyderabad adding 10–15% by FY27. Implication: 15–18% topline growth, 18–19% EBITDA margins in FY27.
