SOBHA’s topline growth hinges on launch execution and Bangalore/NCR demand resilience; margins leverage completion pace but face near-term OC volatility. Model 15–18% sales growth with 18–19% EBITDA margins as base, stress-testing for approval delays and demand softness.
📊 Base Case (60% Probability)
Q4 launches proceed as planned (3–4 projects), with Gurgaon/Noida RERA approvals by early Feb 2026. INR8,500 crore sales target achieved; Q4 EBITDA margins recover to 12–14% on INR500 crore revenue catch-up. Bangalore/NCR contribute 80% of sales, with Mumbai/Hyderabad adding 10–15% by FY27. Implication: 15–18% topline growth, 18–19% EBITDA margins in FY27.
Continue reading “SOBHA – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 16-Jan-26”HAVELLS’ topline resilience hinges on cables/solar offsetting FMEG cyclicality, while margin expansion depends on commodity pass-through efficiency and solar execution; EPS sensitivity to commodity demand elasticity and capex ROI timing remains elevated.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Moderate commodity inflation (copper INR12,500–13,500/kg), (2) FMEG recovery in H2 FY27 (replacement cycles).
Outcome: Revenue growth 12–15% (cables/wires + solar offset FMEG); EBITDA margins expand 50–100bps (price hikes, operating leverage). EPS grows 8–12%, supported by capex payoff in cables and solar margin stabilization. Signal: Monitor Lloyd inventory turnover and export order book.