INDIGO’s topline growth hinges on international expansion and domestic slot recovery, but structural cost pressures (FX, Labour Codes, FDTL) and operational risks (pilot shortages, AOG) compress margins; modeling should assume mid-single-digit CASK inflation and PRASK volatility through FY27.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: FX stabilizes (INR:USD 85–87), FDTL transition smooth, international PRASK grows 5–7%.
ETERNAL’s topline: Growth hinges on competitive rationalization (50–100% YoY range) and Tier 2/3 penetration (30% NOV mix assumption); bottomline: ROCE-driven capex and margin volatility introduce 10–15% EPS variability; margins: 4–6% NOV achievable only if assortment expansion and automation offset competitive pressures.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Competition rationalizes in H2 2026, enabling 70–80% YoY growth with 50bps QoQ margin expansion. Store throughput stabilizes as assortment matures, and Tier 2/3 contributes 30% of NOV with 10% lower margins than Tier 1. ROCE converges to 40%+ by FY27, but free cash flow margins remain opaque. Implication: Topline meets guidance; margins expand to 4–5% NOV by FY26.
Continue reading “ETERNAL (Zomato) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Jan-26”TECHM’s Base case: Telco adds 1–1.5%; growth 5–6%, margin 13–14%, TCV $3.5–4B, AI +50–100 bps. Bear case sees EU telco delay, BFSI furloughs; growth 3–4%, margin 12%, TCV $3B, while Bull case sees early ramp, BFSI logos; growth 7–9%, margin 15%, TCV >$4.5B.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) European telco contributes 1–1.5% FY27 revenue; (2) Manufacturing offsets auto softness with aerospace.
Outcome: 5–6% YoY revenue growth; margins stabilize at 13–14%. Deal TCV sustains $3.5–4B LTM. AI contributes 50–100 bps to growth via productivity gains. Trigger: Steady BFSI ramp; no material FX shocks.
Bharat Electronics’ outlook spans base, bear, and bull scenarios. Revenue ranges from ₹27,000–₹30,000 crore, with EBITDA margins between 25–29%. EPS varies ₹6.5–₹8.0, driven by defense orders, semiconductor costs, and export traction. Timely AoNs and program accelerations remain key triggers for upside.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: NGC (₹4,000 crore in Q4 FY26), QRSAM AoN in FY27; 15% revenue growth; EBITDA at 27%.
Outcome: Revenue hits ₹27,500–₹28,000 crore; order book swells to ₹85,000+ crore. Non-defense reaches 8–10%, exports 4–5%. EPS: ₹7.2–₹7.5. Trigger: Timely NGC orders; semiconductor mitigants hold; AMCA RFP issued by Feb 2026.