📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) INR 575–600Cr/quarter run-rate achieved, (2) FX tailwinds persist, (3) No data center slowdown.
Outcome: Revenue INR 2,300Cr FY27 (5% above guidance); EBITDA 19–20% (FX + pricing power). Free cash flow positive; ROCE expansion supports rerating.
IRFC’s pivot to higher-margin ecosystem lending (40% AUM by 2030) could add 200–300 bps topline growth and 30–50 bps NIM expansion, but execution risks and sovereign dependence cap upside; PAT growth modeled at 10–12%, with NIM sensitivity as the key swing factor.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Bank of Baroda’s topline: 10–12% advance growth (retail/agri-led) faces margin trade-offs; Bottomline: 5–7% EPS growth hinges on NIM stability and credit costs; Margins: 2.7–2.9% NIM range probable, with structural downside risks from funding mix and rate sensitivity.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) GNPA 2.0–2.2%; (2) NIM flat at 2.8%.
Outcome: 5–7% EPS growth, ROA 0.8–0.9%, with 10% advance growth offset by 15–20 bps NIM pressure. Subsidiary drag limits consolidated ROE to 10–11%; ESG and digital initiatives remain execution risks.
Canara Bank’s topline: RAM-driven 13–15% loan growth sustainable, but deposit franchise and CASA mix remain structural drags; Bottomline: 12–15% EPS growth in base case, vulnerable to ECL/cyclical shocks; Margins: NIM floor of 2.40–2.45% assumes stable rates—downside if cuts accelerate or deposit costs rise.
📊 Base Case (60% Probability)
Key Variables: (1) Stable rate cuts (1–2 in FY27), (2) RAM growth sustains at 15–18% YoY.
Outlook: NIM stabilizes at 2.45–2.50% as deposit repricing catches up. Retail/Agri slippages remain controlled (GNPA <2.2%). ECL amortization (₹2,500 Cr/year) absorbed via profits (₹18K Cr). Treasury income normalizes to ₹1,500–2,000 Cr/quarter. Implications: 12–15% EPS growth, RoA 1.1–1.2%, CET-1 >11.5%.
CGPOWER’s topline growth (15–20% YoY) is underpinned by structural power demand and export diversification, but margin expansion hinges on Industrials recovery and semiconductor execution, with Power Systems as the stable anchor.
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
JSW Steel’s topline growth (10–15% CAGR) hinges on domestic demand (7–9%) and Odisha/Dolvi execution; bottomline leverage to capex timing and coking coal costs; margins (14–16%) depend on value-added mix expansion and CBAM mitigation, with structural support from raw material security and policy tailwinds.
📊 Base Case (60% Probability)
Key variables: BPSL closure by March 2026; BF-3 ramp-up on schedule (April 2026); 7–9% domestic demand growth.
Outcome: Net debt/EBITDA normalizes to 2x by FY27 as BPSL cash (Rs.24,400 crore) funds capex. Odisha Phase-1 (5M tonnes) and Dolvi Phase-3 (5M tonnes) deliver 10M tonnes incremental capacity by FY28, supporting 15%+ EBITDA margins. CBAM impact limited to <5% of export volumes; Europe realisations adjust via price pass-through. Topline: 10–12% CAGR; bottomline: 15–18% EPS growth.