February 2026 - Page 3 of 12

TEXRAIL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 9-Feb-26

TEXRAIL’s topline growth hinges on wheel set resolution and tender execution (50% probability of 12–15% YoY growth), while margins depend on Foundry/private mix scalability (10–11% EBITDA achievable in base case). Cash flow conversion remains the critical swing factor.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Wheel set supply normalizes by Q2 FY27; railway tenders awarded in H1 FY27; Foundry exports hit 15,000 metric tons; private wagon demand grows 10–15% YoY.
Outcome: Revenue grows 12–15% YoY (Rs. 3,800–4,000 crore); EBITDA margins expand to 10–11% (operating leverage, mix shift). OCF turns positive; debt/EBITDA improves. Valuation implication: In line with consensus; rerate on execution visibility.

APOLLOHOSP – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 11-Feb-26

Apollo Hospital’s topline likely grows 12–15% in FY’27 (existing hospitals + phased bed additions), but bottomline faces 100–150 bps margin compression from new hospitals; digital profitability and Keimed synergies are binary catalysts for re-rating or de-rating.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: 50% of 750 beds operational by FY’27, digital cash EBITDA breakeven in Q1 FY’27, and 3% pricing power in CONGO-T.
Outcome: Revenue grows 12–14%, EBITDA margins flat YoY (new hospital losses offset by existing hospital expansion). Keimed synergies partially realized; pharmacy delivers 18% same-store growth. Implication: EPS grows 10–12%; FCF breakeven in FY’28.

HINDUNILVR – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 12-Feb-26

Hindustan Unilever’s topline growth hinges on mass segment elasticity and quick commerce scalability, while EBITDA resilience depends on liquid premiumization and D2C margin delivery—model 6–8% revenue growth with 23% EBITDA as base, but skew risks to downside if rural demand or commodity pressures materialize.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Urban consumption recovery (GST 2.0 tailwind, budget stimulus); (2) Benign commodity inflation (palm oil +5%, crude stable).
Outcome: Revenue grows 6–8% (UVG 4–5%) with broad-based category contributions. EBITDA holds at 23% as liquid premiumization and Horlicks relaunch offset QC investments. Signal: Quick commerce reaches 5% of sales with neutral margin impact; D2C brands deliver 20%+ growth.

KRN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 9-Feb-26

KRN’s growth is fueled by data centers and bus AC, but execution risks and margin swings from metals create 15–20% revenue variability. EBITDA margins of 18–22% depend on backward integration scalability, with sensitivity to copper prices and export momentum.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: (1) Bus AC hits 10% market share (INR100 crore revenue); (2) data center orders grow 25% YoY.
Outcome: New facility at 30% utilization by FY27; consolidated revenue INR700–750 crore. EBITDA margins 18–20% on backward integration. Export revenue: 20% of total. Working capital days extend 5–10 days.

NCC – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

NCC’s growth hinges on JJM payment normalization and mobilization of ₹28,000 crore projects, with 5–10% FY26 growth and 15–25% FY27 rebound. Margins stay resilient at 8.5–9.5%, but debt and stretched working capital pressure cash flow, making execution visibility critical.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: INR 2,000 cr JJM payments in Q4 (50% of receivables); INR 28,000 cr projects ramp up in 2H CY26.
Outcome: FY26 revenue at INR 20,500 cr (5% YoY growth); EBITDA margin at 8.5%. Net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x; unbilled revenue reduces to INR 6,000 cr. FY27 revenue +15–18% (INR 23,000–24,000 cr), margin expansion to 9% (operational leverage).

ADSL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

ADSL’s topline: 12–16% YoY revenue growth in FY27, sensitive to large contract wins and government spending; Bottomline: Adjusted PAT expansion hinges on EBITDA margin recovery to 11–12% and audit resolution; Margins: Structural Services shift and AI adoption offset cyclical Solution dilution, but execution risks persist.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Post-election billing catch-up and 1–2 ₹400–500 crore contract wins drive 14–16% revenue growth in FY27. EBITDA expands to 11–12% as Services mix improves and AI automation scales. Audit resolutions limit P&L volatility; stock rerates on execution visibility and mid-teens EPS growth.

BAJAJFINSV – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

BAJAJFINSV’s topline resilience (24% consolidated income growth) faces margin headwinds from GST/Labor Code one-offs and motor underwriting pressures, while capital allocation discipline (Allianz buyout, AMC diversification) and structural edges (Bajaj General’s combined ratio, Bajaj Life’s VNB trajectory) underpin long-term ROE expansion—contingent on execution of pricing actions, agency channel reset.

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3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Motor OD loss ratios correct to 105% by Q2FY27; agency VNB growth sustains at 15–20% YoY; AMC AUM reaches INR 35Kcr.
Outcome: Consolidated PAT growth 12–15%; life NBM stabilizes at 18–19%; general insurance combined ratio at 98–100%. Margin stability: NNM flat YoY, ROE expansion driven by capital efficiency.

TITAN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 11-Feb-26

Titan’s topline growth (40% jewellery revenue surge) is gold-price-driven and cyclically concentrated, while bottomline resilience (EBIT growth outpacing margins) hinges on operating leverage and exchange programs—but structural margin compression (studded jewellery, gold coins) and execution risks (Damas, sub-₹1 lakh demand) cap long-term profitability upside.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Gold prices stabilize; studded margins hold at 12–14%. Exchange programs drive 25% of sales, offsetting 50% of gold price impact. Damas contributes 8–10% to revenue by FY28. Outcome: 15–18% EBIT growth; margins flat YoY.

TRENT – Q3 FY26 Investor Presentation – 5-Feb-26

Trent’s topline (15–20% revenue CAGR) hinges on Tier II/III penetration and omnichannel scaling, while margins (13–15% EBITDA) face structural pressure from depreciation and input costs, and bottomline (10–13% PAT) growth depends on execution of cluster density and automation—all contingent on consumer sentiment recovery and competitive resilience.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Cluster density strategy delivers modest revenue synergies, and automation offsets depreciation headwinds. Key variables: (1) Tier II/III stores mature in 2–3 years; (2) EBITDA margins stabilize at 13–14%. Outcome: Revenue CAGR of 12–15%; PAT margins expand to 13% by FY28. Trigger: Gradual consumer sentiment recovery and stable input costs.

AURIONPRO – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

AURIONPRO’s topline growth (22–30% YoY) is underpinned by lumpy but high-margin Transit/data center deals and banking software stickiness, while bottom-line expansion (19–25% EBITDA margins) hinges on AI-led productivity gains and execution of ₹1,650 crore order book—both contingent on Q4 project delivery and regulatory tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: AI investments yield modest near-term ROI (AurionAi contributes 5–10% of incremental revenue; grants cover 20–30% of R&D), and Q4 execution meets targets (60% EBITDA conversion, DSO at 110 days).
Outcome: Revenue grows at 22–25% YoY, with EBITDA margins stable at 19–21%. Operating cash flow turns positive (~₹100–120 crore), supporting continued acquisitions. Order book expands to ₹1,800–2,000 crore on data center/Transit wins. Implication: Trading range of 18–22x FY27e P/E, with premium for AI optionality offset by execution risks.