February 2026 - Page 4 of 12

KAYNES – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

KAYNES’ topline hinges on project execution timing (Kavach, aerospace) and ODM adoption; bottomline sensitive to working capital normalization and subsidy-driven capex phasing; margins require ODM scale-up to sustain expansion beyond 16%. FY28 $1 billion target viable but contingent on structural ODM/OSAT execution.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Kavach executes in Q4; OSAT/PCB Phase 1 completes by FY27.
Outcome: FY26 revenue at INR 4,000 crore; EBITDA margin at 16% on throughput leverage. OCF turns positive in FY27 as receivables normalize. OSAT contributes INR 1,000 crore by FY28, PCB adds INR 800 crore; EMS grows at 25% CAGR. $1 billion FY28 revenue achieved, but margin expansion lags due to ODM ramp-up.

RVNL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

RVNL’s topline growth (10% CAGR) hinges on execution of INR 87,000 crore order book, but bottomline (7% EBITDA) and margins face structural pressure from bidding mix; FY26 profit stagnation likely, with FY27 recovery contingent on cost discipline and railway capex visibility.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) INR 40,000 crore railway works executed on time, (2) Bidding revenue scales to INR 10,000–12,000 crore/annum, (3) EBITDA margins stabilize at 7%.
Outcome: 10% topline growth, flat-to-low-single-digit profit growth in FY26; 12–15% profit growth in FY27 as margins recover. Stock trades at 15–18x P/E, supported by infrastructure capex tailwinds.

PIDILITIND – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 4-Feb-26

Pidilite’s revenue growth of 9–11% CAGR (base) driven by domestic resilience and adhesive penetration, with ±3% export variance. PAT CAGR at 12–15% (base) on 24–25% margins; bull case hinges on EU trade deal, bear case on shocks. EBITDA corridor: 20–24%.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) U.S. tariffs resolved by Q1 FY27 (exports flat YoY); (2) Tile adhesive penetration sustains 15–18% CAGR; (3) A&SP delivers +50 bps UVG uplift.
Outcome: Revenue growth 9–11%, EBITDA margin 24–25% (gross margin tailwinds offset by A&SP). Dr. Fixit/Roff outperform; pioneering segments contribute <5% revenue. Valuation supports 20–22x PE, in line with historical premium.

TATASTEEL – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 6-Feb-26

Tata Steel’s topline growth hinges on India volume ramp (6M+ tons) and EU price recovery (€700/t), while bottomline faces coking coal/EAF execution risks; margins likely 22–26% in base case but vulnerable to policy delays and input inflation.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

UK quotas revised by Q3 2026 → EBITDA turns positive (£50M).
CBAM pass-through successful → Netherlands EBITDA at €250M.
India realisations up ₹2,300/t → EBITDA margin at 22–24%.
Implication: Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x; FCF supports ₹15,000 crore capex.

EICHERMOT – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 10-Feb-26

Eicher Motors’ Base case projects 18–20% growth led by 350cc volumes and LATAM/APAC exports, with EBITDA margins at 24–25%. Bear case risks stagnation, tariffs, and inflation compressing margins to 22–23%. Bull case sees 650cc rebound, tariff relief, and EV adoption driving 25%+ growth.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: 450cc recovery to pre-GST levels, U.S. tariffs at 18%, Brazil CKD scales.

Revenue: 18–20% YoY growth driven by 350cc volume (60% of mix) and LATAM/APAC exports (10% CAGR).
Margins: EBITDA stabilizes at 24–25% on VA/VE (40bps tailwind) and selective pricing (1–1.5% annual hikes).
Capex: Cheyyar expansion on track; 2M capacity by FY28 with 80% utilization by FY29.

AVALON – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

AVALON’s topline growth is underpinned by diversified verticals and geographic expansion, but tariff policy and semiconductor execution remain key swing factors; bottomline leverage hinges on U.S. margin turnaround and working capital discipline, while margins face structural headwinds from tariffs but benefit from operating leverage and long-term contracts.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Tariffs stabilize at 18%, semiconductor volume production begins FY’27, and BESS demand sustains.
Outcome: Revenue grows 25–30% (FY’27), with gross margins at 34–35% and EBITDA margins expanding to 12–13%. U.S. manufacturing turns EBITDA-positive by H2 FY’27; ROCE stabilizes at 18–20%. PAT grows 50–60% YoY.

THERMAX – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

THERMAX’s topline: 8–15% revenue growth (international-led, domestic lagging); Bottomline: 10–12% EBITDA margins (chemicals recovery critical); Margins: Structural headwinds (China, mix) offset by IP-driven niches (data center, carbon capture).

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: International orders (data center/refinery) offset domestic weakness; chemicals EBITDA recovers to 12–13%.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% YoY; EBITDA margins expand to 10–11%; FY27 EPS supported by TBWES capacity utilization.

BOSCHLTD – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 9-Feb-26

BOSCHLTD’s growth (8–12% FY26–27) is cyclical yet ICE-heavy; EV/hydrogen remain optional. Profitability leans on cost discipline and divestments, with PAT ~7–9%. Margins hinge on localization, while OBD-II cliff, CV capex cycles, and e-axle contracts are critical watchpoints.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) GDP growth 6.5-7.3%, (2) CV/LCV demand stable (government capex continues), (3) E-axle contracts signed in FY27 (5% topline contribution by FY28).
Outcome: Revenue growth 8-10%, EBITDA margins 10.5-11.5% (localization offsets wage inflation), PAT growth 10-12% (core operations). 2-Wheeler segment normalizes (-10% YoY post-OBD-II), Power Tools flattish. Hydrogen remains R&D expense.

CUMMINSIND – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

CUMMINS’ topline hinges on domestic capex execution and export stabilization, with data centers as a wild card; bottomline sensitivity to commodity inflation and one-time margin benefits; margins face structural pressure from competitive intensity but benefit from cost actions and mix tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Domestic capex executes as budgeted; exports grow 5–7%; copper stabilizes at INR1,300–1,400/kg; data center orders convert in 2–3 years.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% (double-digit domestic, flat exports); gross margins sustain at 36–37%. EPS grows 8–10% YoY.

CHOLAFIN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

CHOLAFIN targets 20–25% AUM growth via vehicle finance and mortgages; margins hinge on funding costs and digital scaling. ROA (3.2–3.5%) faces asset quality risks, with FY27 inflection dependent on macro stability and portfolio seasoning.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Cyclical recovery in vehicle demand (10–15% HCV/LCV growth), 5–10 bps Q4 cost of funds reduction, CSEL NCLs decline to 4.5% by FY27.
Outcome: NIM stabilizes at 8.0–8.1%; AUM grows 20–22%. Vehicle finance NCLs improve to 1.7%, CSEL to 4.5%. ROA reaches 3.3%, ROE at 19–20%. Interim dividend sustained at 65%.