April 25, 2026 - ChartAlert®

LODHA – Lodha Developers – Formerly Macrotech – Q4 FY26 Investor Presentation – 24-Apr-26

LODHA’s topline has a credible 15–20% CAGR runway supported by launch pipeline and geographic expansion, but bottomline at 20% PAT margin is structurally capped unless land sales normalize and RentCo turns FCF-positive, while margins face a structural labor cost headwind that management’s general contractor model partially but not fully offsets.

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Also see: LODHA – Lodha Developers – Formerly Macrotech – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Pre-sales compound at ~17% YoY to INR 240bn in FY27, embedded EBITDA margins hold at 32–34%, labour cost inflation remains below 8% annually, collections close the gap with pre-sales by FY28 as projects complete, and RentCo annuity income scales to INR 8–10bn by FY29.

Net D/E stays below 0.35x. FY31 PAT of INR 70–80bn is achievable, implying ~15–17% CAGR — slightly below the 20% guidance. Key variable: pre-sales velocity and collection conversion rate.

AXISBANK – Axis Bank – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 25-Apr-26

Axis Bank’s core engine holds with NII growth and digital scale, but FY26 PAT fell on heavy provisions (₹3,572 Cr vs ₹1,550 Cr). Aggressive 18.6% loan growth via borrowings risks NIMs and capital; FY27 hinges on deposit mobilisation, PBT trajectory, and provision normalization.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Total income grew 4.0% YoY (₹1,55,917 Cr → ₹1,62,212 Cr); interest earned up 4.1% (₹1,27,374 Cr → ₹1,32,538 Cr), led by advances income (+3.0%) and investment income (+10.4%).
Other income slipped 2.4% YoY in Q4 (₹7,506 Cr → ₹6,972 Cr), dragging quarterly topline despite sequential NII stability.
Retail Banking remains the dominant revenue engine at ₹1,49,402 Cr (62% of gross segment revenue); Digital Banking sub-segment surged 15.5% YoY (₹34,320 Cr → ₹39,656 Cr).

Bottomline

Consolidated net profit fell 6.0% YoY (₹28,055 Cr → ₹26,385 Cr), driven by a 66.8% spike in provisions (₹8,166 Cr → ₹13,617 Cr), not operational weakness.
Q4 FY26 net profit of ₹7,603 Cr grew 1.7% YoY (vs. ₹7,475 Cr), recovering sequentially from Q3’s ₹7,011 Cr — signals stabilization.
A negative tax charge of ₹(385 Cr) in Q4 FY26 (vs. ₹2,405 Cr in Q4 FY25) inflated quarterly PAT; normalized earnings are lower.

Margins

Net Interest Margin proxy: NII (Interest Earned − Interest Expended) = ₹58,463 Cr in FY26 vs. ₹56,338 Cr in FY25, up 3.8% YoY — modest spread compression signals cost-of-funds pressure.
Operating profit margin (Operating Profit / Total Income): FY26 = 28.3% vs. FY25 = 28.8% — marginal deterioration; cost growth (opex +5.6% YoY) slightly outpaced income growth.
PBT margin compressed sharply: FY26 = 19.9% vs. FY25 = 23.6%, entirely attributable to the surge in provisions.

Growth Trajectory

Advances grew 18.6% YoY (₹10,81,229 Cr → ₹12,82,392 Cr); deposits grew 13.9% YoY (₹11,70,921 Cr → ₹13,33,791 Cr) — loan growth outpacing deposit accretion raises funding mix questions.
Digital Banking profit nearly doubled YoY (₹2,198 Cr → ₹4,255 Cr), now contributing 44% of Retail segment profit — a structural positive for cost efficiency.
Treasury and Corporate Banking profits fell sharply YoY (Treasury: −29.6%; Corporate: −8.0%), reflecting higher credit costs and MTM losses rather than revenue erosion.

TATAELXSI – Tata Elxsi – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Apr-26

Tata Elxsi’s FY27 hinges on 8–9% growth from Transportation and Healthcare, with Media volatility. PBT margin expansion to 27% depends on utilization, fixed‑price delivery, and AI productivity; 100–150 bps risk from currency/salary cycles. Offshore leverage supports 24–26% EBITDA, but GenAI scalability remains unproven.

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Also see: TATAELXSI – Tata Elxsi – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 21-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Healthcare deals close in Q1; Transportation grows high single-digit; Media & Comms stabilizes.
Outcome: Revenue grows 8–9%, led by Transportation (10–12%) and Healthcare recovery (5–7%). EBITDA margins expand to 25–26% on utilization gains and AI efficiencies. New verticals contribute <5% of revenue. Implication: In-line with guidance; margin trajectory supports valuation rerating.

HCLTECH – HCL Technologies – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 21-Apr-26

Topline growth hinges on AI-native service scaling and client spend recovery, while margins face structural pressure from AI deflation and cyclical headwinds; capital discipline and acquisitions remain key levers for offsetting organic softness.

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Also see: HCLTECH – HCL Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 21-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

AI deflation stabilizes at 3–5%, and discretionary spend recovers modestly in H2 FY27. Client-specific headwinds persist but do not worsen. AI-native services grow 25% YoY, offsetting legacy declines. Acquisitions close in H2, contributing incrementally. Revenue growth: 2–3%; EBIT margins: 17.5–18.0%.

ICICIBANK – ICICI Bank – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 18-Apr-26

Topline resilience (14-16% loan growth) hinges on deposit mobilization and macro stability, while bottomline (7-9% PAT growth) faces asymmetric risks from credit costs and NIM compression; margins likely range-bound unless opex discipline sharpens.

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Also see: ICICIBANK – ICICI Bank – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 18-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Conflict de-escalates, deposit growth recovers to 13%, credit costs stabilize at 50 bps.

Topline: 14-16% loan growth (retail/corporate balance).
Bottomline: PAT grows 7-9% (dividend yield ~1.5%).
Margins: NIM range-bound (4.2-4.4%); cost-income ratio improves to 42%.

HDFCBANK – HDFC Bank – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 18-Apr-26

Topline resilience hinges on retail/SME execution and corporate cyclicality; bottomline stability requires NIM defense via deposit granularity and cost offsets, with ROA leveraged to tech scalability and cross-sell penetration.

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Also see: HDFCBANK – HDFC Bank – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 18-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Rate pause extends; corporate demand moderates to 12–14% growth. Outcome: Retail acceleration (mortgages, SME) offsets corporate slowdown; NIM stabilizes (±5bps). ROA: 1.9–2.0%; EPS growth 8–10%.

WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 17-Apr-26

Waaree’s topline growth is order-book-dependent, with FY27 revenue hinging on 36 GWp pipeline conversions, while bottomline resilience relies on 15%+ EBITDA discipline and IPP/O&M recurring revenue streams; margins face cyclical pressure if competitive bidding intensifies or module costs surge.

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Also see: WAAREERTL – Waaree Renewable Technologies – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 16-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Order conversion rate ~30% for domestic pipeline, BESS tenders materialize in H2 FY27, module cost increases passed through.
Outcome: Revenue grows 15–20% YoY in FY27, driven by 2.8 GWp execution + 1–1.5 GWp new orders. EBITDA margins stabilize at 18–19%; OCF turns positive as IPP assets ramp. Valuation supported by order book visibility and IPP recurring revenue.

ATUL – Atul Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

Atul Ltd’s FY26 saw 40% PAT growth, margin gains, and tripled OCF on a debt‑free balance sheet. Life Science Chemicals EBIT at 23.1% and rising corpus signal durability. Risks: capex slowdown, MSME exposure, reliance on investment gains. FY27 hinges on capex revival.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations grew 12.4% YoY (₹5,583 Cr → ₹6,274 Cr in FY26), with Q4FY26 accelerating to 15.1% YoY (₹1,452 Cr → ₹1,670 Cr) — momentum is building into year-end.
Performance & Other Chemicals dominates at 73.5% of FY26 segment revenue (₹4,609 Cr), growing 13.6% YoY; Life Science Chemicals contributed ₹1,805 Cr (+6.7% YoY) — both segments in sustained expansion.
Q4FY26 inter-segment revenue fell to ₹52 Cr from ₹64 Cr in Q4FY25, indicating less internal cross-charging and cleaner external revenue quality.

Bottomline

PAT attributable to owners surged 40.1% YoY (₹484 Cr → ₹678 Cr in FY26); Q4FY26 PAT jumped 66.2% YoY (₹127 Cr → ₹210 Cr) — the most decisive quarterly beat of the year.
Basic EPS expanded from ₹164.37 to ₹230.25 (+40.1% YoY), with no dilution — all earnings growth is owner-accruing.
A deferred tax charge of ₹39.6 Cr in FY26 (vs. ₹35.5 Cr in FY25) signals continued capex-linked timing differences; despite this, effective tax rate declined to 23.4% from 27.9%, partly aided by ₹14.2 Cr prior-year tax write-back in Q4.

Margins

EBITDA (PBT + Finance costs + D&A, ex-other income): FY26 = ₹900.5 − ₹202.9 + ₹17.4 + ₹322.1 = ₹1,037.1 Cr on revenue of ₹6,273.5 Cr → EBITDA margin of 16.5% vs. FY25: (₹692.5 − ₹109 + ₹24 + ₹316.8) = ₹924.3 Cr / ₹5,583.4 Cr = 16.6% — broadly stable.
Net profit margin (PAT attributable / Revenue): FY26 = ₹677.9 / ₹6,273.5 = 10.8% vs. FY25 = ₹483.9 / ₹5,583.4 = 8.7% — 210 bps expansion, a material quality improvement.
Power & fuel costs declined as a share of revenue (FY26: 10.3% vs. FY25: 11.7%), while material costs held at 51.9% — input efficiency is improving on the energy side.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR implied over FY25–FY26 is 12.4%; at Q4FY26 run-rate (₹1,670 Cr/quarter × 4 = ~₹6,680 Cr annualised), FY27 growth is tracking above trend.
Segment EBIT margin for Life Science Chemicals: FY26 = ₹417 Cr / ₹1,805 Cr = 23.1% vs. FY25 = ₹347 Cr / ₹1,692 Cr = 20.5% — 260 bps expansion; Performance Chemicals: 9.0% vs. 8.5% — incremental but consistent.
Other income nearly doubled YoY (₹109 Cr → ₹203 Cr), partly from investment gains (₹77 Cr FVTPL gains), suggesting the investment corpus is growing as a structural earnings contributor.

SHRIRAMFIN – Shriram Finance – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 24-Apr-26

Shriram Finance’s FY26 delivered 21% PAT growth, a 41% Q4 surge, and stronger deposits. Liquidity buffers fell 63% and derivative outflows weigh near term, but solvency intact. Earnings expansion hinges on AUM compounding and credit cost efficiency; risks are borrowing cost spikes or asset quality stress in CV/SME.

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🔍 Observations

Topline

Interest income scaled 15.8% YoY to ₹46,658 Cr in FY26 (from ₹40,308 Cr), reflecting robust AUM expansion as the loan book grew ~15.1% YoY to ₹2,82,452 Cr.
Fee and commission income contracted 27.6% YoY (₹682 Cr → ₹494 Cr), partially offset by higher other operating income (+22.5% YoY); total revenue from operations rose 15.1% YoY to ₹48,133 Cr.
Q4FY26 interest income of ₹12,094 Cr grew 12.1% YoY and 2.1% QoQ, confirming steady sequential momentum with no quarterly deceleration.

Bottomline

Reported PAT from continuing operations grew 6.3% YoY to ₹10,005 Cr; stripping FY25’s exceptional gain of ₹1,554 Cr, normalized PAT growth is a stronger ~21% YoY — a cleaner read on operating leverage.
Q4FY26 PAT of ₹3,015 Cr surged 40.9% YoY (vs. ₹2,139 Cr in Q4FY25) and 19.4% QoQ, the sharpest quarterly earnings print in the visible period.
Basic EPS from continuing operations rose to ₹53.29 in FY26 from ₹50.19 in FY25 (+6.2% reported; ~21% normalized), with dilution negligible given marginal ESOP issuance.

Margins

Finance costs as a share of total income expanded to 44.7% in FY26 (from 44.1% in FY25), reflecting rising cost of funds pressure even as the loan book grows.
Net profit margin (PAT/Total Income, continuing ops) came in at 20.8% for FY26 vs. 22.5% in FY25 on a reported basis; on a normalized basis (ex-exceptional), FY25 base PAT margin was ~18.5%, indicating genuine margin expansion of ~230 bps.
Impairment charges as a share of total income remained stable at ~11.1% in FY26 (₹5,339 Cr / ₹48,133 Cr) vs. 12.7% in FY25 — improving credit cost efficiency on a growing book.

Growth Trajectory

AUM CAGR implied over FY25–26 at ~15%, with deposit-funded growth accelerating: deposits grew 23.9% YoY (₹56,086 Cr → ₹69,480 Cr), signaling a deliberate liability mix shift toward stickier retail funding.
Operating profit (PBT before exceptional) compounded from ₹10,949 Cr to ₹13,300 Cr (+21.5% YoY), demonstrating durable earnings power independent of one-off gains.
Q4FY26 PBT of ₹3,917 Cr vs. ₹2,772 Cr in Q4FY25 (+41.3% YoY) signals an accelerating exit run rate, a positive leading indicator for FY27.