Power Archives - Page 2 of 2

TATAPOWER – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 4-Feb-26

TATAPOWER’s topline growth (10–15% YoY) hinges on renewable execution and Mundra restart, while bottomline resilience (PAT +15–20% in base case) depends on regulatory true-ups and cost discipline; margins (EBITDA 24–28%) face structural pressure from DCR transition and transmission risks.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Mundra restarts by Q1 FY27, adding ₹500–600 crore annual PAT, while 2.5 GW renewable capacity is commissioned with 6-month transmission lag. EBITDA grows 10–12% YoY, supported by Odisha Discom cash flows (₹3,200 crore annualized) and stable solar margins (24–26%). PAT rises 15–20% YoY on Mundra recovery and renewable ramp-up. PPP awards materialize in H2 FY27, driving distribution revenue growth.

POWERGRID – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

POWERGRID’s topline resilient (RE evacuation tailwinds), but bottomline faces 100–300bps margin compression from RoW costs and storage regulatory delays; CapEx efficiency (not volume) will dictate FCF conversion and EPS growth.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) RoW guidelines sustain execution + (2) Transformer relaxations approved.

₹32,000 crore FY26 CapEx achieved, with 80% TBCB realization.
HVDC Barmer-Kala Amb awarded in FY27, BESS tariffs approved by H2CY26.
Outcome: 12–15% revenue CAGR, margins stable at 28–30% (EBITDA/Revenue).

ADANIGREEN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

ADANIGREEN’s topline growth hinges on grid evacuation timing and merchant price recovery, while bottomline resilience depends on storage arbitrage execution and commodity cost containment; margins remain structurally high (90%+) but face cyclical pressure from wind volatility and merchant pricing.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (60% Probability)

Grid augmentation completes by March 2026 (2–3 GW), and wind speeds normalize in H1 FY27. Merchant realizations recover to ₹2.50–3.00/unit (solar) on peak demand. Battery storage (3.5 GWh) operationalizes as planned, enabling 10–15% revenue uplift from arbitrage. EBITDA margin sustains at 90%+, with ₹16,000 crore power supply EBITDA achieved by FY26 end. Debt/EBITDA improves to 5x by FY27.