HDFC Bank’s Base case projects loan growth at 14–16% with NIMs steady near 3.3–3.4% and EPS rising 12–15%. Bear case risks slower growth, NIM contraction to ~3.2%, and higher credit costs. Bull case offers expansion, NIMs above 3.5%, and EPS growth near 20%.
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3-Scenario Framework
📊 Base Case (50% Probability)
Key variables: Deposit growth at 14–15%, LDR glides to 90% by FY27; no material provision surprises.
Outcome: Loan growth at 14–16%; NIMs stabilize at 3.3–3.4% as cost of funds declines. Credit costs at 35–40 bps. EPS grows 12–15%, RoA flat at ~1.9–2.0%.
