April 28, 2026 - ChartAlert®

INFY – Infosys Ltd – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Apr-26

Topline growth hinges on AI services scaling to double-digit revenue share to offset structural deflation, while margins face asymmetric risks from acquisition dilution and productivity pass-throughs—prioritize scenarios where AI revenue % and client spend recovery are cross-validated.

1–2 minutes

Also see: INFY – Infosys Ltd – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 23-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Geopolitical tensions stabilize, and AI services revenue reaches 8–10% of total (from 5.5%+ in Q3), offsetting 1–1.5% legacy compression. European Manufacturing impact contained at 75bps; Stratus contributes 25bps revenue, while Optimum closes in H1 FY27. Wage hikes limited to 50bps; Project Maximus delivers 40bps margin tailwind. Outcome: Revenue grows 2–3% YoY; margins hold at 20–21%.

TECHM – Tech Mahindra – Q4 FY26 Earnings Call – 22-Apr-26

Topline hinges on telecom resilience and BFSI/Manufacturing deal conversion, with 4–6% CC growth most probable; bottomline leverages fixed-price margin expansion (14.5–15% EBIT) but faces execution risk in AI scalability; margins benefit from pyramid optimization but require pricing discipline to sustain gains.

1–2 minutes

Also see: TECHM – Tech Mahindra – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 22-Apr-26

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Telecom stabilizes (no major client losses) + AI productivity scales to 10–12% + BFSI/Manufacturing deals ramp.
Outcome: Revenue grows 4–6% CC (peer+1–2%); EBIT margin 14.5–15% (fixed-price gains). PAT grows 8–12%. ROCE hits 28–30%. Valuation rerates to 16–18x P/E on margin durability.

MARUTI – Maruti Suzuki India – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 28-Apr-26

Maruti posts 20% revenue growth and record Q4 sales, but cost inflation erodes margins, making FY27 earnings trajectory pivotal. Debt‑free balance sheet and treasury provide valuation floor, yet re‑rating hinges on H1FY27 cost stabilisation and inventory normalisation rather than topline momentum alone.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Revenue from operations surged 19.9% YoY (₹1,529,130M → ₹1,833,160M), with product sales as the primary engine at 20.2% growth.
Q4 FY26 posted ₹524,625M — a 28.2% jump vs Q4 FY25 (₹409,201M), the strongest quarterly print of the year.
Services and other operating revenues grew 9.6% and 25.8% YoY respectively — modest but consistent diversification.

Bottomline

Full-year net profit held nearly flat at ₹146,795M vs ₹145,002M (+1.2% YoY) despite 19.9% revenue growth — a stark compression story.
Q4 FY26 PAT (₹36,590M) declined 6.4% vs Q4 FY25 (₹39,111M), continuing the quarterly softening trend.
Tax rate normalized sharply: effective rate rose to 23.2% in FY26 vs 26.1% in FY25 — deferred tax reversal in FY25 (₹12,369M) inflated last year’s base; current year deferred tax was only ₹1,192M outflow.

Margins

EBITDA (PBT + D&A + Finance costs − Other income): FY26 = ₹191,185 + ₹67,417 + ₹2,387 − ₹43,572 = ₹217,417M; FY25 = ₹196,200 + ₹56,082 + ₹1,942 − ₹50,222 = ₹204,002M. EBITDA margin: FY26 = 11.86% vs FY25 = 13.34% on revenue from operations — 148 bps compression.
Net profit margin contracted from 9.48% (FY25) to 8.01% (FY26) — driven by cost of materials consumed growing 27.9% vs revenue growth of 19.9%.
Other income fell 13.2% YoY (₹50,222M → ₹43,572M), removing a tailwind that cushioned FY25 profits.

Growth Trajectory

Revenue CAGR trajectory is healthy, but profit growth has decoupled — topline scaling without proportional bottomline flow-through signals rising cost intensity.
Employee costs surged 28.8% YoY (₹70,260M → ₹90,497M), well ahead of revenue growth, suggesting workforce expansion ahead of productivity gains.
Depreciation rose 20.2% YoY (₹56,082M → ₹67,417M), reflecting active capex cycle; near-term earnings will remain under amortisation pressure.

ETERNAL – Formerly Zomato – Q4 FY26 Financial Results – 28-Apr-26

Eternal’s FY26 hinges on Blinkit’s EBIT turnaround and food delivery’s compounding floor, but negative FCF, rising leases, Going Out’s 10x loss, and outsized ESOP costs constrain profitability. Long‑term investors may find Blinkit compelling, yet unit economics and dark store paybacks matter more than suppressed consolidated PAT.

1–2 minutes

🔍 Observations

Topline

Consolidated revenue surged to ₹54,364 Cr in FY26 from ₹20,243 Cr in FY25 (+168.6%), almost entirely driven by Blinkit scaling from ₹5,206 Cr to ₹37,779 Cr — lifting its revenue share from 25.7% to 69.5% of group total.
Q4FY26 revenue hit ₹17,292 Cr (+196.5% YoY vs ₹5,833 Cr), with Blinkit alone contributing ₹13,232 Cr (76.5% of quarterly revenue).
Food delivery grew steadily — ₹10,159 Cr in FY26 vs ₹8,080 Cr in FY25 (+25.7%), a solid but modest secondary engine.

Bottomline

PAT fell to ₹366 Cr in FY26 from ₹527 Cr in FY25 (-30.6%), despite 2.7x revenue growth — cost absorption from Blinkit’s rapid scale-up overwhelmed operating leverage.
Q4FY26 PAT improved to ₹174 Cr vs ₹39 Cr in Q4FY25, with sequential momentum (Q3FY26: ₹102 Cr) signalling quarterly recovery.
Total comprehensive income turned negative at -₹166 Cr in FY26 vs +₹655 Cr in FY25, reflecting mark-to-market losses on investments and currency effects below the PAT line.

Margins

EBITDA margin compressed to 4.8% in FY26 from 8.5% in FY25 (EBITDA: ₹2,604 Cr vs ₹1,714 Cr), as delivery and stock-in-trade costs scaled faster than revenue. (Verification: FY26 EBITDA = PBT ₹615 + D&A ₹1,597 + Finance costs ₹392 = ₹2,604 Cr; margin = ₹2,604/₹54,364 = 4.79% ✓)
PAT margin contracted sharply to 0.7% in FY26 from 2.6% in FY25 — Blinkit’s unit economics, while improving, dilute consolidated profitability at scale.
Q4FY26 EBITDA margin of 4.8% (₹828 Cr on ₹17,292 Cr) holds flat sequentially, suggesting stabilisation. (Verification: Q4FY26 EBITDA = PBT ₹228 + D&A ₹468 + Finance ₹132 = ₹828 Cr ✓)

Growth Trajectory

Blinkit’s EBIT swung from -₹21 Cr in FY25 to +₹430 Cr in FY26 — a structural profitability inflection for the fastest-growing segment.
Hyperpure turned EBIT-positive at ₹16 Cr in FY26 vs -₹43 Cr in FY25, validating the B2B supply chain thesis.
Going Out and residual segments remain loss-making (combined EBIT: -₹498 Cr in FY26), suggesting early-stage bets that require continued investment before contributing to profitability.