February 17, 2026 - ChartAlert®

AVALON – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

AVALON’s topline growth is underpinned by diversified verticals and geographic expansion, but tariff policy and semiconductor execution remain key swing factors; bottomline leverage hinges on U.S. margin turnaround and working capital discipline, while margins face structural headwinds from tariffs but benefit from operating leverage and long-term contracts.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Tariffs stabilize at 18%, semiconductor volume production begins FY’27, and BESS demand sustains.
Outcome: Revenue grows 25–30% (FY’27), with gross margins at 34–35% and EBITDA margins expanding to 12–13%. U.S. manufacturing turns EBITDA-positive by H2 FY’27; ROCE stabilizes at 18–20%. PAT grows 50–60% YoY.

THERMAX – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

THERMAX’s topline: 8–15% revenue growth (international-led, domestic lagging); Bottomline: 10–12% EBITDA margins (chemicals recovery critical); Margins: Structural headwinds (China, mix) offset by IP-driven niches (data center, carbon capture).

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: International orders (data center/refinery) offset domestic weakness; chemicals EBITDA recovers to 12–13%.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% YoY; EBITDA margins expand to 10–11%; FY27 EPS supported by TBWES capacity utilization.

BOSCHLTD – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 9-Feb-26

BOSCHLTD’s growth (8–12% FY26–27) is cyclical yet ICE-heavy; EV/hydrogen remain optional. Profitability leans on cost discipline and divestments, with PAT ~7–9%. Margins hinge on localization, while OBD-II cliff, CV capex cycles, and e-axle contracts are critical watchpoints.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) GDP growth 6.5-7.3%, (2) CV/LCV demand stable (government capex continues), (3) E-axle contracts signed in FY27 (5% topline contribution by FY28).
Outcome: Revenue growth 8-10%, EBITDA margins 10.5-11.5% (localization offsets wage inflation), PAT growth 10-12% (core operations). 2-Wheeler segment normalizes (-10% YoY post-OBD-II), Power Tools flattish. Hydrogen remains R&D expense.

CUMMINSIND – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

CUMMINS’ topline hinges on domestic capex execution and export stabilization, with data centers as a wild card; bottomline sensitivity to commodity inflation and one-time margin benefits; margins face structural pressure from competitive intensity but benefit from cost actions and mix tailwinds.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Domestic capex executes as budgeted; exports grow 5–7%; copper stabilizes at INR1,300–1,400/kg; data center orders convert in 2–3 years.
Outcome: Revenue grows 10–12% (double-digit domestic, flat exports); gross margins sustain at 36–37%. EPS grows 8–10% YoY.

CHOLAFIN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

CHOLAFIN targets 20–25% AUM growth via vehicle finance and mortgages; margins hinge on funding costs and digital scaling. ROA (3.2–3.5%) faces asset quality risks, with FY27 inflection dependent on macro stability and portfolio seasoning.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Cyclical recovery in vehicle demand (10–15% HCV/LCV growth), 5–10 bps Q4 cost of funds reduction, CSEL NCLs decline to 4.5% by FY27.
Outcome: NIM stabilizes at 8.0–8.1%; AUM grows 20–22%. Vehicle finance NCLs improve to 1.7%, CSEL to 4.5%. ROA reaches 3.3%, ROE at 19–20%. Interim dividend sustained at 65%.

TMPV (Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles) – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 5-Feb-26

Tata Motors’ Base case: JLR stabilizes with flat China volumes and timely RR EV launch, while Tata PV margins hold at 6–8%, FCF neutral by FY27. Bear case sees deeper China declines and bottlenecks, margins <5%. Bull case lifts orders, Sierra scales, margins 9–10%, FCF positive.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

JLR stabilizes: China volumes flatline (-20% YoY), RR EV launch on time. Tata PV executes Sierra ramp, PLI accruals steady. Outcome: JLR EBIT 0–2%, Tata PV margin 6–8%; FCF neutral by FY27.