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CHOLAFIN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 2-Feb-26

CHOLAFIN targets 20–25% AUM growth via vehicle finance and mortgages; margins hinge on funding costs and digital scaling. ROA (3.2–3.5%) faces asset quality risks, with FY27 inflection dependent on macro stability and portfolio seasoning.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key variables: Cyclical recovery in vehicle demand (10–15% HCV/LCV growth), 5–10 bps Q4 cost of funds reduction, CSEL NCLs decline to 4.5% by FY27.
Outcome: NIM stabilizes at 8.0–8.1%; AUM grows 20–22%. Vehicle finance NCLs improve to 1.7%, CSEL to 4.5%. ROA reaches 3.3%, ROE at 19–20%. Interim dividend sustained at 65%.

BAJFINANCE – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 3-Feb-26

Bajaj Finance: AUM growth 21–23% with upside to 26% on execution; ROE 18.5–19.5% capped by credit costs; margins steady with NIM stability and fee normalization, though gold prices and MSME risks remain key profitability swings.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: (1) Gold prices stable (USD 4,500–5,000) + (2) MSME 3MOB delinquencies <1.5%.

Topline: AUM growth 21–23%, with gold loan (+30%) and new car finance (+30%) offsetting MSME drag.
Bottomline: ROE 18.5–19.5% as 170 bps credit costs (ECL overlay) and 32–33% opex/NTI (AI efficiencies) normalize.
Margins: NIMs flat at 7.45% COF, fee income at 18–20% YoY.

SHRIRAMFIN – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 23-Jan-26

Shriram Finance’s topline growth (14–16% YoY) hinges on rural/LCV demand and infra capex; bottomline (18–20% EPS growth) depends on NIM stability (8.5–8.7%) and credit cost containment (<1.7%), with execution risks skewed to MSME and customer retention strategies.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Budget infra allocations meet expectations (HCV growth 8–10%); MSME stabilizes (Stage 3 <4.5%); funding costs drop 70–80bps.
Outcome: Disbursements grow 14–16% YoY; NIM holds at 8.5–8.7%; credit costs at 1.5–1.7%. EPS growth 18–20%, ROE ~15%.

TATACAP – Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – 19-Jan-26

TATACAP’s topline growth (18–20% AUM) and margin stability (NIM 6.6%) are credible, but bottomline upside (PAT growth) hinges on credit cost trajectory (1.0–1.2%) and Motor Finance execution, with structural tech efficiency offsetting cyclical macro risks.

1–2 minutes

3-Scenario Framework

📊 Base Case (50% Probability)

Key Variables: Unsecured retail slippages stabilize; Motor Finance AUM grows 5–7% YoY; housing margins hold at 2.4% ROA.
Outcome: Credit costs trend to 1.0–1.1%; consolidated ROA at 2.0–2.2%. AUM growth at 18–20%. NIM expansion of 5–10bps on funding cost tailwinds.